Bitcoin is attempting to break through $95,000 in early 2026, but despite the price surge, market indicators are signaling that this should be interpreted cautiously.
Bitcoin has shown a bullish trend since the beginning of the year, rebounding to the low to mid-$90,000 range. Institutional capital inflows, particularly into US Bitcoin spot ETFs, have been a key driver of the price recovery. The continued inflow of funds into ETFs from major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity, demonstrating continued institutional investment demand, is considered a positive factor.
However, a more conservative trend is observed in the derivatives market. Recently, the Bitcoin futures market has seen a decline in leveraged positions and open interest. Analysts suggest that this suggests a shift toward prioritizing the liquidation of existing positions and risk management over aggressive new buying.
Even in the spot market, strong buy signals are limited. Some indicators of US investor demand are not showing a clear premium expansion, and price increases are not sufficiently supported by increased trading volume.
In the options market, there has been a slight easing of concerns about short-term downside risks, but the prevailing view is that it is premature to interpret this as a strong upward trend. Analysts also suggest that a significant portion of options trading is focused on responding to volatility or adjusting existing positions, rather than directional bets.
Market analysis firm CryptoQuant predicts a range-bound fluctuation as the baseline scenario for Bitcoin's future price movements, predicting that volatility could increase depending on changes in the macroeconomic environment. They believe a short-term surge is unlikely to continue without a clear increase in liquidity or trading volume.
Experts predict that the low-to-mid $90,000 range will be a crucial turning point. With the positive factors of institutional capital inflows and the cautious signals of reduced derivatives positions competing, whether Bitcoin can gain substantial trading momentum is considered a key variable that will determine its future direction.
