Original author: Cathy, Plain Language Blockchain
In the early hours of January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas during Operation Absolute Resolve.
This incident has raised a huge question in the crypto community: Does the Maduro regime really have the rumored "shadow reserves"?
According to a report by the investigative firm Whale Hunting and multiple intelligence sources, a startling rumor is circulating in the market: the Maduro regime may possess 600,000 to 660,000 bitcoins. If this rumor is true, based on market prices in early 2026, the total value would be as high as $60-67 billion.
What does this mean?
MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy), a company known as a "Bitcoin whale," held over 670,000 BTC as of January 2026, worth approximately $61.3 billion. If the rumors about Venezuela are true, its holdings would be comparable to those of the world's largest corporate buyer, representing about 3% of the total Bitcoin supply (21 million).
But the question remains: does this wealth truly exist? If so, where is it hidden?
In the crypto world, there's an ironclad rule: "Not your keys, not your coins."
01 How did the rumors originate?
To understand where the rumor of "600,000 BTC" comes from, we need to first understand the theoretically possible channels through which the Maduro regime could accumulate Bitcoin. It is important to emphasize that the following analysis is based on publicly available reports and intelligence estimates, and is not definitive fact.
Method 1: Petro Scam – Paving the Way for Cryptocurrency
In February 2018, under heavy pressure from US sanctions, Maduro announced the launch of the world's first "national cryptocurrency"—the Petro. The government claimed to have raised $735 million on the first day, with a total fundraising target of $6 billion.
However, multiple investigations have shown that this ICO had serious problems from the very beginning.
The Petro cryptocurrency initially claimed to be based on Ethereum, then on NEM, and ultimately appeared to be running on a private blockchain that didn't even exist. The government claimed the Petro was backed by 5.3 billion barrels of crude oil from the Ayacucho block, but on-site investigations revealed dilapidated infrastructure and no actual mining activity.
The so-called "financing" is likely just a transfer of assets between different hands within the regime.
While the Petro failed, it left behind a crucial byproduct: Sunacrip (the National Crypto Asset Regulatory Authority). This agency was granted the power to oversee all crypto activity, issue mining licenses, and even directly operate national mining pools. It wasn't a regulatory body, but rather a national money laundering center.
In January 2024, Maduro officially shut down the Petro cryptocurrency. This was not a failure, but a strategic shift—from "issuer" to "holder," fully transitioning to Bitcoin and USDT, which have genuine global liquidity.
Option Two: PDVSA-Crypto Scandal – $21 Billion Unaccounted For
Market rumors suggest that the core source of the Maduro regime's Bitcoin reserves may be the misappropriation of oil export revenues from the state-owned oil company PDVSA.
In 2019, the United States imposed comprehensive sanctions on PDVSA, cutting off its access to the global banking system. In order to survive, PDVSA launched an "anti-blockade" strategy:
Dark Fleet: "Teapot Refineries" (small, non-state-owned refineries) that use tankers with their transponders turned off to transport crude oil to Asia.
Intermediary networks: These networks use shell companies registered in the UAE, Russia, and other locations to conceal the origin of crude oil. These intermediaries often have no experience in oil trading; their only qualification is a personal relationship with key figures in the regime.
Cryptographic Settlement: Unable to receive USD wire transfers, the intermediary was instructed to pay for the oil in USDT (Tether).
In March 2023, Venezuela was rocked by the PDVSA-Crypto scandal, which shocked the nation. An internal government audit revealed that approximately $21 billion in oil export receivables went missing between 2020 and 2023.
Where did this money go? It remains a mystery.
Some intelligence analysts speculate that a portion of this may have flowed back into regime-controlled wallets via cryptocurrency. Sunacrip allegedly established an automated "stepping stone" mechanism.
- Receiving: The intermediary transfers USDT to a central wallet controlled by Sunacrip.
- Cleaning: Disrupting the flow of funds using mixers such as Tornado Cash
- Exchange: Exchange USDT for Bitcoin at OTC counters in Russia or Eastern Europe.
- Storage: Bitcoin is transferred to offline-generated cold wallets, with the private keys held by the highest levels of the regime.
The core designers of this system were Tareck El Aissami (former oil minister) and Alex Saab (the regime's "financial diplomat"). El Aissami resigned in March 2023 and was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, facing multiple counts including treason and money laundering. His assets are likely to be confiscated by the Maduro family.
Saab's return to Venezuela in December 2023 through a prisoner exchange with the United States, in which he was exchanged for 10 American prisoners, demonstrates his indispensability in Maduro's eyes—an importance that likely stems from his control over the country's fiscal lifeline.
Method 3: Military mining – "national computing power" by confiscating mining machines.
Besides oil revenues, another theory suggests that the Venezuelan regime may be directly producing Bitcoin by controlling "means of production."
Venezuela possesses some of the world's cheapest electricity, primarily supplied by the Guri Dam. This makes Bitcoin mining extremely profitable. The Maduro government has monopolized this advantage through its military-commercial arm, CAMIMPEG (a military company specializing in mining, oil, and gas).
CAMIMPEG established the "Bolivarian Army Digital Asset Production Center," and these military mining sites enjoy privileges:
- Power Supply Guarantee: In the event of frequent power outages nationwide, military mines have priority in power supply.
- Security: Heavily guarded by the National Guard
- Zero-cost operation: Since electricity is practically free (subsidized by the government), the marginal cost is close to zero.
But where does the equipment for military mines come from? A large part of it comes from the plunder of private mine owners.
Starting in 2020, Sunacrip, in conjunction with the military, launched a series of raids against private mining farms:
- 2020: The National Guard seized 315 Antminer S9 mining machines in Bolívar State.
- 2023: A raid on the headquarters of the "Aragua Train" gang in Tocolón prison resulted in the seizure of a large number of mining machines and weapons.
- 2024: In Malakal, a single operation seized over 2,300 Antminer S19J Pro vehicles.
Intelligence sources estimate that between 2020 and 2025, the government may have acquired tens of thousands of mining rigs by seizing private mining farms and gang facilities. These devices were not destroyed but redeployed to facilities controlled by CAMIMPEG.
Based on the known thousands of high-performance mining machines, plus the output of state-owned mining farms, this "zombie army" may have produced tens of thousands of Bitcoins over the past few years.
02 The source and doubts surrounding the "600,000 BTC" rumor
Key question: Is this figure credible?
Based on intelligence reports from Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and the investigative firm Whale Hunting, the estimated value circulating in the market is between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC. However, it must be emphasized that:
This figure comes from intelligence sources only, and is not hard data that can be traced on the blockchain.
There is no publicly available on-chain evidence to support this figure.
The Whale Hunting report explicitly states: "This estimate comes from HUMINT (human intelligence) and has not been verified by blockchain analysis."
Nevertheless, the report still provides a hypothetical compositional analysis:
Is this rumor logically sound?
Supporters' viewpoint:
MicroStrategy comparison: MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) held over 670,000 BTC as of January 2026. A sovereign nation theoretically has the capacity to reach a similar scale.
Funding backing: $21 billion of PDVSA's assets went missing between 2020 and 2023. If 50% of that were converted into Bitcoin, it could buy 300,000 to 400,000 BTC at the average price at the time.
The skeptic's perspective:
- Lack of on-chain evidence: If 600,000 BTC really exist, there should be traces on the blockchain, but so far no one has been able to point out the specific address.
- The numbers are too neat: the figure of 600,000 seems more like an estimate than an actual statistic, and may be significantly overestimated.
- Motives are questionable: This rumor may be used for political purposes or market hype.
Conclusion: In the absence of conclusive blockchain evidence, this remains an unverified rumor.
03 If the rumors are true: Who has the private key?
Assuming this "shadow reserve" does exist, then even if Maduro is arrested, it does not mean that the United States can control it.
The primary challenge facing the FBI is proving the existence of these bitcoins and finding their private keys.
Who could possibly have the private key?
If this asset does exist, intelligence analysts speculate that it is unlikely to be managed by a single account, but is more likely to employ a multisig or sharding scheme.
Theoretically, private key holders might include:
- Alex Saab: As the regime's financial architect, Saab not only understands the full picture of fund flows, but also likely possesses the key seed phrase needed to recover wallets or the physical location of hardware wallets. He returned to Venezuela in December 2023 in a prisoner exchange with the United States, where Maduro traded 10 American prisoners for this financial strategist, demonstrating his indispensability within the regime.
- Nicolasito (Maduro's son): Maduro's son, named in the indictment. He was deeply involved in the illegal gold mines and the regime's day-to-day operations, and may have held a backup of the family's private keys.
- Cilia Flores (First Lady): Known as the "first combatant," she holds an extremely high position within the inner circle of the regime. She may wield physical control over a portion of the cold money.
- Tech-bureaucratic layer: Former Sunacrip technicians may be responsible for maintaining the technical architecture of multi-signature. Although they may not know the full private key, their cooperation is crucial for refactoring wallet access permissions.
Cryptographic architecture speculation
The most likely architecture is an M-of-N signature scheme (e.g., 3/5 or 5/7). This means that at least 3 out of 5 key figures must sign before funds can be used.
If Maduro, Flores, and Saab are all under US control, theoretically the US could force them to cooperate in unlocking funds. However, reality is far more complex than theory:
- Geographically dispersed: Cold wallets may be stored in bunkers in Caracas, safes in Russia, or secure houses in Cuba.
- Dead Hand Switch: It cannot be ruled out that the system is configured with some kind of automatic trigger mechanism. If no specific action is taken for an extended period (such as Maduro's disappearance), funds may be automatically transferred to an irrecoverable address or sent to other allies.
- Ideological resistance: Even facing life imprisonment, key figures who control the private keys may refuse to cooperate. For them, this is not just wealth, but also the last weapon against "American imperialism."
04 Market Impact: Rumors themselves are an uncertainty
Even if this rumor remains unconfirmed, it has already become a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the cryptocurrency market. 600,000 Bitcoins represent 3% of the total BTC supply, and if true, would have a huge impact.
Three possible scenarios
Scenario 1: The rumor is false
If a thorough investigation by the FBI and blockchain analytics firms ultimately proves that this "shadow reserve" does not exist or is significantly overvalued, the market may breathe a sigh of relief. This would mean no potential selling pressure, which would be neutral or even slightly positive for prices.
Scenario 2: The rumors are true and the suspect is under FBI control.
If this asset truly exists and the US successfully seizes it, as is customary, these Bitcoins will enter into a judicial freeze process, potentially remaining illiquid for years. This effectively locks up a significant supply, reducing the circulating supply and thus benefiting the price.
This is similar to the FBI's seizure of "Silk Road" Bitcoin in 2013. At that time, approximately 170,000 BTC were frozen and eventually auctioned off in batches. However, during the freeze, these coins were effectively removed from circulation, objectively reducing selling pressure in the market.
Scenario 3: The rumor is true, but the private key is out of control.
This is the most dangerous scenario. If the asset actually exists, but the private key is not controlled by the US, the remaining forces of the regime in exile may try to sell Bitcoin on the OTC market to obtain funds for their escape, which would trigger a panic sell-off.
When the German government sold just 50,000 BTC in 2024, it triggered a sharp short-term market fluctuation. A sell-off of 600,000 BTC would be catastrophic.
05 Summary
Maduro's arrest has indeed revealed a corner of the Venezuelan regime's use of cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions.
From the failed Petro experiment to the $21 billion PDVSA-Crypto scandal, and the militarized mining facilities, these are all proven facts. But the rumor of a "shadow reserve of 600,000 BTC" still lacks conclusive evidence.
The facts we can confirm are: Venezuela does indeed use cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions, $21 billion from PDVSA is indeed missing, and the regime has indeed confiscated a large number of mining machines.
However, the rumors we cannot confirm include: whether 600,000 BTC have actually been accumulated, (if so) who has the private keys, and whether these Bitcoins will enter the market.
This certainly raises a pointed question: how do we find a balance between freedom and order when decentralized technology is used to circumvent sanctions?
But until more evidence comes to light, the “$60 billion shadow reserve” remains just an unconfirmed rumor.
