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21Shares sees $XRP entering a new phase in 2026 as ETF demand reshapes its price outlook.
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Record-breaking $XRP ETF inflows are colliding with shrinking exchange supply, changing market dynamics.
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While upside scenarios are outlined, 21Shares flags execution risks that could define $XRP’s next move.
Crypto asset manager 21Shares released its $XRP 2026 outlook, projecting a base case target of $2.45, a bull case of $2.69, and a bear case of $1.60 if adoption slows.
The predictions follow a historic run for $XRP spot ETFs in the United States.
According to 21Shares, $XRP ETFs have pulled in over $1.3 billion in assets under management in their first month. The funds also recorded a 55-day streak of consecutive inflows, breaking all previous records across any asset class.
Why These Inflows Matter More for $XRP
At launch, $XRP’s market cap was around $113 billion. That’s roughly one-eighth of Bitcoin’s $845 billion valuation when its own ETFs went live.
21Shares pointed out that Bitcoin needed $3 billion in its first month to start moving. $XRP has attracted comparable capital with a much smaller float. The result: inflows carry more weight.
On the supply side, exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low of 1.7 billion $XRP. Institutional buying through ETFs is now running into a retail base that isn’t selling.
$RLUSD Stablecoin Gains Ground
21Shares also highlighted Ripple’s $RLUSD stablecoin as a key growth driver.
$RLUSD’s market cap jumped over 1,800% in under a year, rising from $72 million to $1.38 billion. The stablecoin now has more than 37,000 holders.
For comparison, Circle’s USDC grew 269% in its first year.
Risks to Watch
The outlook flagged several concerns. ETF inflows could slow or reverse if sentiment shifts. The $XRP Ledger also faces competition from Solana, Canton, and other networks targeting real-world asset tokenization.
21Shares warned of a potential “sell the news” scenario if real utility doesn’t show up now that the SEC case is resolved.
$XRP is currently trading at $1.93, up 2.31% over the last 24 hours.
