This article is machine translated
Show original
Why wait for the 4x-5x range to buy and hold Bitcoin long-term?
Recently, Vinh also mentioned that he would only consider buying BTC when it reaches the 40-50 range.
My personal view is the same, and below is the price range where I would start buying, based on my own technical analysis.
In the long term, I will analyze Bitcoin based on the weekly timeframe.
Analytical framework: Weekly
Currently , BTC is around 76k, at support but no longer strong.
- Upward wave from April 2025 → ATH 126k: very low Volume
- Downward wave from October 2025: price drop accompanied by high Volume
The upward trend is no longer strong, and large institutions are no longer interested => high probability of a breakdown and reversal.
Personal script:
- It might recover slightly to around 90k.
- Then it broke the $73K support level.
- Price returns to the old Volume profile range.
And it's highly likely to return to the lowest price range, which is around $47k-$51k.
Why is it a good time to start buying long-term in this region, instead of waiting for it to drop further to 3-4x its current price?
- This area hasn't been tested before, so it will also be a strong support zone.
- The RSI on the weekly chart will fall below 30.
- BTC will fall below the Realized Value zone based on the MVRV Z-Score (I will have a separate article explaining this indicator later).
In my opinion, this is a good long-term buying zone.
I'm willing to buy here because of the high probability of long-term profit.
What if BTC drops even further?
👉 DCA adds: no need to try to buy at the absolute Dip .
Retailers shouldn't expect to buy at the Dip and sell at the top.
Note: This is a personal analysis, for reference only – not investment advice.


Almost two months ago, I warned that the crypto market no longer has room for growth.
Hopefully, you will take this into consideration and make appropriate investment plans for the near future.

Alan Nguyen
@AlanNguyen2909
11-23
Thị trường đã chính thức tiến vào downtrend dài hạn chưa?
Qua góc nhìn phân tích kỹ thuật của mình thì về mặt cấu trúc
Thị trường CHƯA XÁC NHẬN DOWNTREND, nhưng XÁC XUẤT TĂNG NEW ATH cho BTC không còn nhiều
Nếu chúng ta coi trên khung tuần (cặp BTC/USDT trên


Sector:
From Twitter
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
Add to Favorites
Comments
Share




