Market downturn: 8-year veteran OG's advice for Web3 new and old friends: 1. Crypto's benefits will last at least two more macro cycles. Don't be scared by the market panic and the drop in FUD; this is just emotional turmoil accompanying a financial market downturn, a breakdown of consensus. With the long-term flooding of fiat currency and expectations of devaluation, traditional and stable assets like gold, which offer "value preservation + slight appreciation," will benefit. Meanwhile, scarcity, decentralization, and high volatility correspond to "high-risk, high-return digital gold," and BTC, more sensitive to liquidity, will also benefit. So the benefits are still there. Don't be pessimistic. As someone with experience from 2018 to 2022, I can tell you that I've heard about all these FUDs for years—blockchain scams, institutional exploitation, etc.—I'm tired of it. They don't offer anything new. This is merely a short-term breakdown of consensus; it doesn't signify the beginning of a new consensus. 2. The biggest influencing event in the next 1-3 years will be the implementation of policies after the new Fed Chairman Warsh takes office, US inflation, whether the economy will experience a recession, and the release of loose liquidity. This will lead to several possible outcomes. Unless Warsh is particularly hawkish, or the US economy experiences a recession, it's unlikely we'll see a deep bear market like in 2022. However, Warsh's specific policies won't be known until June. Don't be too anxious. If there's no strong hawkish stance or a recession, then there will definitely be a trend rebound in 2026, but inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding the Fed will certainly put some pressure on the market. Why a rebound? Because of expectations of interest rate cuts, and liquidity is better than in 2025. Although this is a recurring point, I still want to emphasize that from a macroeconomic cycle perspective, we are still in the late 2019/early 2020 phase. A true loose bull market like that of 2020-2021 hasn't arrived yet. Because current market liquidity is still very poor. 3. Building on point 2, this year's liquidity isn't extremely loose, but it's better than in 2025, so it's more of a transitional phase. Focus on survival. Don't invest recklessly. If you're disillusioned with the market, you can leave and focus on your work. If you still want to achieve results in this field, you should continue to pay close attention to market developments. Remember, don't enter the market just because it's a bull market and exit just because it's a bear market. Unless you're truly committed to leaving the market entirely. 4. This year, due to inflation, Fed maneuvering, and various debates, there will definitely be a market low point. However, there might be another low point in 2027 due to a recession. These two low points may represent the best entry points in the next three years. A truly loose market may begin around 2027, possibly as early as the end of 2026. 5. With the arrival of a loose bull market, there will definitely be new opportunities for consensus in the market. Finally, thank you to all my friends for your encouragement. Thank you for calling me OG. Actually, I also need to keep researching and learning. If you have any thoughts on the above content, please feel free to communicate and we can verify them together. My views also change with market fluctuations.

Walsh isn't particularly hawkish. In fact, Powell has been cutting interest rates and reducing his balance sheet for the past two years. Walsh is likely more dovish than Powell, but crypto is hard to predict; BTC should hold up. However, Walsh's slightly dovish stance is probably insufficient to support most Altcoin.