Slow Grind Down, Not a Collapse — URPD Reveals How Panic Is Reshuffling BTC Bags Since Jan 15, BTC has tanked from its $97K high to $73K on Feb 4. The drop was fast and deep, instantly crushing the optimism that expected some resistance around $80K. It’s impossible to say there’s no panic in the air. So let’s break down what’s really happening with BTC’s bag distribution during this period, and what alpha might be hiding underneath. To make things simple, I pulled the full URPD data and broke it down by $10K intervals. This way, we can clearly see how the bags are moving and get a read on the current market sentiment. (See Chart 1) Between Jan 15 and Feb 4, profitable bags below the current price shrank by 67,008 BTC (about 9.7% of total outflow). Meanwhile, loss-making bags above the current price dropped by a massive 611,324 BTC (88% of total outflow). What does this mean? In this overall downtrend, OG holders with bags still in profit are selling less and less. Either they think there’s no point in selling now with most gains already gone, or they’re just long-term diamond hands who DGAF about price swings. Bottom line: the lower it goes, the less they sell. The majority of selling is coming from those trapped at the top. Over 600K BTC dumped in just 20 days shows just how intense the panic-driven capitulation really is. But here’s the twist: we’re seeing massive buy walls step in at $80K–$90K and especially $70K–$80K. The latter zone saw net buys of 450,413 BTC—almost double the previous range. Clearly, there’s big money lurking in the background, flexing hard and putting real skin in the game: “You dump, I buy.” The lower it goes, the harder they ape in. That’s a key difference between this cycle and previous ones. Even if the 4-year cycle theory isn’t dead yet, bulls are fighting back at every level on the way down: $100K, $90K, $80K, $70K… Bag clusters are shifting down gradually, not falling off a cliff. A lot of people are calling for a cycle bottom at $50K or even $30K. Personally, I’m not convinced. But I do believe, once bears squeeze the bulls’ “territory” to the limit, and supply starts running dry, we’ll see an epic bull counterattack. --------------------------------------------- Here’s a question for you guys to chew on: According to the chart, on 2026/1/15 the total BTC bag count was 16,184,047; on Feb 4 it was 16,198,235. So where did the extra 14,188 BTC come from? What does this mean? Drop your thoughts in the comments—let’s discuss! --------------------------------------------- All of the above is for educational purposes only, NOT financial advice!