Sharing Galaxy Digital Research, Focusing on Next-Generation Financial Structural Changes
"Shifting from volume-driven markets to information accuracy-driven markets, expanding to include risk hedging and governance."
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Space recently shared research on prediction markets from Galaxy Digital, noting that prediction markets are evolving beyond simple betting into a financial layer that distills information into prices.
Generating high-quality price signals without massive liquidity.
According to Galaxy Digital's analysis, prediction markets incorporating AI agents can generate high-quality price signals without relying on large liquidity pools.
This will transform prediction markets from volume-driven markets to information-accuracy-driven markets. AI agents analyze vast amounts of data in real time, providing market participants with more accurate information, thereby enhancing the market's price discovery capabilities.
Galaxy Digital analyzed that "when a leverage structure is added, confidence in information is directly reflected in capital allocation, and prediction markets acquire financial characteristics similar to existing derivatives."
Beyond short-term events, to risk hedging and governance.
Space believes this structure could expand prediction markets beyond short-term, event-driven services into a core information infrastructure encompassing risk hedging, asset forecasting, and governance decisions.
Prediction markets reached their "zero to one" moment between late 2024 and early last year, establishing themselves as a mechanism for aggregating information and supporting decision-making.
Galaxy Digital predicted that prediction markets are evolving into impact markets and decision markets, moving beyond simply predicting future events to becoming tools that influence actual decision-making and governance.
"The most reliable information generation structure on the market."
Space assessed that AI agent-based prediction markets are now evolving beyond the stage of guessing 'what will happen' to a structure that produces the most reliable information in the market.
Galaxy Digital predicts that "AI will fundamentally reshape how prediction markets are priced, how they are used, and their role within decentralized finance," adding that "leveraged prediction markets could expand into products similar to perpetual futures (perps) for event risk."
Galaxy Research identified prediction markets as a key growth area in its virtual asset market outlook for this year. It projected that Bitcoin's price would reach $250,000 and predicted that prediction markets would become a core infrastructure for decentralized finance.
A new paradigm for the information economy
Space believes the combination of AI agents and prediction markets will usher in a new paradigm for the information economy. AI agent-based prediction markets are evolving beyond simply predicting what will happen to generating the most reliable information in the market.
Joohoon Choi joohoon@blockstreet.co.kr
