After an insane and rapid dump, BTC is finally showing signs of a bounce. Getting nuked down to $60k this fast definitely exceeded everyone’s expectations—including mine. Even though BTC has bounced back to $70k, BRS is still frozen at 100 (see Chart 1), not budging an inch. The day after BRS hit 100, I set limit orders at $76k, $75k, and $74k, aiming to catch a bounce based on my signals (tweeted about this on Feb 4). Didn’t expect to get in this early, and ended up getting stopped out below $70k just as planned (see Chart 2). But here’s the thing: historically, whenever BRS hits 100 (as long as it’s not a sharp V-shape), there’s always a bounce—success rate is about 70% according to backtests. That said, price volatility during these periods can still hit -13%, with the worst case being -25% (see quoted tweets for details). I still trust my system here. When BRS=100, BTC was at $75,992, so -13% puts the price around $65k-$66k. After getting stopped out, I pyramided buy orders at $65k, $64k, $63k, $62k, and $61k (see Chart 3)—because I had no idea where the true bottom would be, so I spread out my bids. There’s another key reason I was comfortable laddering in: on-chain data showed that $60k is exactly where PSIP=50% (see Chart 4). So even if BTC keeps dumping after I catch the knife, I’m fine holding these buys long-term—no fear of getting stuck in a deep bag. Currently, my PnL is back in the green and has fully recovered the loss from my $70k stop. But honestly, my expectations for this bounce aren’t that high. If we get to $75k-$76k, that’s just a weak bounce; $85k-$87k would be strong. Where it goes from here—I have no idea. Price isn’t the only thing I care about in trading. I focus more on the data feedback and signal triggers. But if BTC dumps below $70k again, I’ll take profit instantly. On the macro, it’s unlikely $70k is the cycle bottom for this move. Looking back at this bumpy bounce play, my takeaway is: data + decision + conviction + guts + luck. You need all five. Data gives you the edge, decision shows your skills, conviction means trusting yourself, guts keep your emotions in check, and of course, a little luck never hurts. If my limit orders hadn’t filled (or only partially), the rest of the bounce would’ve had nothing to do with me. Just sharing my real thoughts here. In my Feb 5th tweet, I broke down the data and backtest probabilities for everyone, but I can’t give any financial advice. Interested to hear what strategies you all chose—drop a comment and let’s discuss! — For learning and discussion only. Not financial advice!