A TD Sequential buy signal appearing around $0.095 suggests that the downward pressure on Dogecoin (Doge) is slowing, but not enough to reverse the main downtrend.
Doge has been gradually sliding towards the Dip of its multi-week downtrend, with controlled selling pressure rather than a sell-off. Data such as CVD, exchange netflow, and Open Interest suggest the market may be taking a temporary "pause" or experiencing a technical rebound, but the risk of volatility remains high.
- Doge is showing a buy signal at the TD Sequential near $0.095, reflecting signs that the downward momentum is losing steam.
- CVD is leaning towards the buy side, and the Doge listing leaving the exchange suggests that supply for sale may be tightening.
- Open interest increases when prices are compressed, raising the risk of volatility and liquidation; resistance/support levels should be monitored.
The TD Sequential buy signal reflects a pause in a downtrend.
A TD Sequential buy signal appears when Doge approaches $0.095, usually implying that downward pressure is weakening and a short-term rebound may occur, but not necessarily a trend reversal.
Doge has been gradually declining from its September peak, but the intensity of selling has shown signs of decreasing over time. Recent candles have shorter bodies and weaker follow-through momentum, often indicating exhaustion of sellers at short-term Dip .
However, this signal does not automatically negate the larger bearish structure. Given that the main trend remains downward, it is more consistent with a "pause" or technical rebound within the downtrend scenario.
Therefore, the current setup leans towards caution: a buy signal could help stabilize the price in the short term, but confirmation still depends on Doge breaking through key resistance levels.
The descending channel structure continues to limit the retracements of Doge.
Doge rose to around $0.096 (approximately +6.3% in 24 hours), primarily reflecting a reaction from technical support, and not yet evidence of a trend reversal.
The Doge price remains within a downward-sloping retracement channel that has controlled volatility for months. This makes rallies vulnerable to being "suppressed" when approaching the channel's resistance zone, unless there is a clear breakout.
On the downside, the $0.080 level is key support, where previous selling pressure has stalled. Above the current price, $0.117 is crucial resistance, consistently rejecting recovery attempts since November.
For Doge to create a sustainable rebound, it needs to reclaim $0.117 first. Further down, $0.153 is the next upside target, coinciding with the previous distribution zone and near the upper edge of the descending channel.
Active buying pressure remains present through Spot Taker CVD.
The Spot Taker CVD is skewed towards buyers, indicating that active buyers are still absorbing supply, despite the prolonged price weakness.
The data shows that aggressive buy orders are still outnumbering sell orders, implying that demand is absorbing the available supply instead of fleeing. This is different from panic phases, where CVD typically turns sharply negative.
However, buyers don't "chase" prices higher. They participate quietly when sellers reduce their urgency, creating an accumulation pattern of absorption rather than speculative momentum.
This dynamic makes the TD Sequential signal more noteworthy, as both indicate that downward pressure is slowing down, but there isn't enough data to confirm a general trend reversal.
Doge delisting suggests that supply is tightening.
Negative netflow suggests Doge is leaving the floor, which could reduce the supply available for sale and prevent the price from falling too quickly around the local Dip .
Spot netflows further reinforce this narrative, with recent net outflows of approximately $7.7 million in a single day (at the time of recording). Token leaving exchanges during periods of weakness often imply that holders are not in a hurry to distribute them immediately.
However, this is not yet evidence of strong accumulation. It reflects a reduced willingness to sell in response to the decline, rather than confirming a large-scale inflow of new money.
Combined with a buy-side skewed CVD, the liquidation environment may limit the acceleration of the decline, unless new selling pressure emerges. However, the bearish structure remains, so the risk of a continuation of the trend persists.
An increase in Open Interest near support levels increases the risk of volatility.
An increase in open interest when prices are compressed suggests that leverage is returning near the support zone, making the market more sensitive to two-way liquidation sweeps.
At the time of recording, Open Interest increased by more than 5%, raising the total Derivative position to approximately $1.04 billion while prices remained "compressed". This suggests that traders are returning to leverage near support levels instead of withdrawing from the market.
However, an increase in open interest without a structural breakout often fails to provide clear direction, increasing the risk of volatility. Both Longing and Short positions may be waiting for the price range to widen.
Therefore, the current area has high liquidation sensitivity. A decisive breakout above resistance or a break below support could trigger strong leveraged volatility, sending the price moving rapidly in either direction.
Conclusion: Doge may stabilize in the short term but remains under the control of a downtrend.
The TD Sequential signal, buyer absorption, and negative net flow help reduce the risk of a "free fall," but the downtrend remains the dominant structure until resistance levels are broken.
In summary, current signs support a stabilization or technical rebound scenario. However, confirmation needs to come from Doge reclaiming levels within the descending channel, particularly $0.117, before expecting higher targets such as $0.153.
Until confirmed, this setup leans more towards volatility than certainty: downside risk may be fading, but it hasn't been fully resolved.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the TD Sequential buy signal on Doge mean?
It often signals that the downward momentum may be weakening and the market is likely to pause or rebound in the short term. However, this is not a confirmation of a reversal, especially when the price remains within a descending trend channel.
What are the key price points for Doge right now?
The main support mentioned is $0.080. The nearest resistance is $0.117, a level that has repeatedly rejected a recovery. If $0.117 is breached, the $0.153 area is the next upside target according to the channel structure.
Why are negative net flow and buy-biased CVD important?
Negative netflow indicates Doge is delisting, potentially reducing the supply available for sale. A buy-side CVD reflects active buying absorbing supply. Combined, these suggest slowing downward pressure, though not enough to confirm a new uptrend.
What are the risks when open interest increases while prices are moving sideways?
Increased open interest (OI) during periods of price consolidation typically increases volatility and liquidation risk, as leverage accumulates in both directions. A breakout above resistance or below support could trigger significant volatility in the breakout direction.
