Andrew Kang: Anyone who has experienced at least one market cycle has developed an instinct to be wary of price increases that significantly outpace historical performance. Watching the dot-com bubble, the 2008 global financial crisis, and all the sudden surges in cryptocurrencies, a pattern-recognition alarm system is built into our brains. We feel reluctant to enter the market because prices are too high, or we want to sell our existing holdings. However, it's important to recognize that we are in one of the most profound and unique moments of asymmetrical change in history. The only thing we can do now is broaden our time horizon and completely abandon short-termism. It's foolish to worry too much about bubbles. It's also foolish to try to time the market. Short-term fluctuations and corrections will always occur, but given that we're so close to the Singularity, they're nothing more than noise. We will witness unstoppable growth in AI, robotics, energy, and innovation. Within the next decade, billions (or more) of AI agent workers, humanoid robots, space data centers, multiplanetary colonization, and vastly improved medical treatments will emerge, fundamentally altering the pace and throughput of technological breakthroughs across all domains. We will achieve more technological progress and economic growth in the next 20 years than in the entire history of human civilization combined. We are already in the steepest part of the J-curve, but this is difficult to discern when zoomed in on a daily or weekly basis. Currently, 100% of Anthropic's product code is written by Claude. Product managers (PMs) have virtual teams of software engineers who can practically transform their time. Companies that effectively leverage AI have increased their product iteration speeds by triple digits, not single or double digits. And the capabilities of these tools are improving at an even faster rate. It doesn't matter whether we officially reach Artificial General Intelligence (ASI) in 2027 or 2029. It will happen. By the time it's officially declared, the assets you want to own will already be several times more expensive. In a highly feasible scenario, real economic growth over the next three to ten years could be recorded as a "20-sigma" event (20 times the standard deviation) under any historical distribution. Unprecedented second- and third-order changes will enable growth previously considered nearly impossible. Traditional valuation models are ill-equipped to price this change. The unstoppable upside potential is so vast that conventional present value calculations are simply too difficult to capture. The pace of asset appreciation will be as astounding as the cryptocurrency boom that created countless billionaires and millionaires in a short period of time, but the scale will be incomparably more extreme. Without exposure to the asset, it will be very difficult to buy in at such a rapid pace. However, unlike previous bubbles, real economic value creation will be able to keep pace with the vertical asset price increase much better. Those who understood and acted on the Exponential Horizon over the past three years have benefited greatly. If you haven't yet embraced this understanding, it's not too late. While it's essential to always consider downside risk, it's also the greatest upside risk the world has ever seen. Learn to tolerate risk longer. Now is not the time to trade. While investing generally outperforms trading for most people, the gap between trading and the expected value (EV) of investing will be wider than ever. What is the value of the implied call option called the Singularity? This is not investment advice. twitter.com/gorochi0315/status...
This article is machine translated
Show original
Sector:
From Twitter
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
Add to Favorites
Comments
Share
Relevant content






