On January 27, 2023, I posted a thread — “The On-Chain Indicator That Never Fails,” aiming to break down the confirmed bear market bottom from multiple angles (see quoted tweet). 🚩 My followers at the time: < 500 🚩 Impressions on that tweet: 448 🚩 BTC price that day: $23,000 Looking back now, even though my wording and chart annotations were a bit rough and raw, the content still holds true to this day. For example: the [Never-Failed] On-Chain Indicator #5: CVDD. You’ll find explanations of its mechanism on many data platforms, so I won’t repeat them here (feel free to DYOR if you’re interested). (Fig 1 - CVDD) The biggest feature of CVDD is its “no retraction” nature — today’s CVDD is always higher than yesterday’s. From 2010 to 2026, BTC’s daily price has always stayed above CVDD; at bear market bottoms, it gets super close but never breaks below. Even in Nov 2022, when BTC hit $15,800, CVDD was at $14,800. So, will BTC fall below CVDD this cycle? Personally, I’d rather believe in something that’s never happened than bet on a first-time event. Current CVDD: $44,904, and it’s climbing at an average pace of $540 every 30 days. In other words, there’s a strong chance this cycle’s BTC bottom won’t fall below $45k — it’ll just get really close. But as for the exact number, no one knows for sure! Looking at how close BTC is to CVDD now, we’re already past the historical average. That means BTC in the $60ks is pretty much already within the “bottom zone.” 42 days after that Jan 27, 2023 tweet, the US TradFi banking crisis hit (Mar 10, 2023), sending BTC right back to the CVDD line. That might have been our last chance in this lifetime to scoop BTC under $20k. If you missed it last time, let’s hope we can catch it this time! ----------------------------------------------- This is for educational sharing only, not investment advice!