我认为从周期布局角度来讲，既然大方向上已经基本确定 $ETH 失去了对 $BTC 的α，那这轮熊底我将不再布局ETH。除非熊底或牛市中间的回撤有相对于BTC的超跌，那还可以买一个相对BTC的超跌修复；亦或者ETH有新的可以带来大量活跃资金的技术革新或超级故事可以讲，那也可以在后续有此苗头的右侧再介入。

$ETH 在本轮牛市有两个关键节点，一个是通过ETF，一个是以Tom Lee 为首真金白银购买以太坊的微策略(华尔街)。这两个关键节点都没让以太坊出现像过去一样显著领先比特币的上涨。如果你是一个老韭菜，你应该很清楚，17年比特币在12月触顶后、21年比特币在4月触顶(一顶)后以太坊的上涨幅度。α可能消失了

TingHu♪

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From a cyclical investment perspective, since the overall direction has been largely determined and the alpha for $ETH has been lost, I will not be investing in ETH during this bear market bottom. Unless the pullback during the bear market bottom or the middle of a bull market is relatively oversold compared to BTC, in which case I could buy in for a recovery relative to BTC; or ETH has a new technological innovation or a compelling story that can attract significant active capital, in which case I could consider entering on the right side of the chart if such signs emerge.

This trader made a total of 48 predictions of market movements within 15 minutes, earning a net profit of $80,000 in one day.

Earning $80,000 a day, this top player treats Polymarket like an ATM.

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