Alright, cards on the table! For the first time this cycle, LTH-RPRL (Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio) has dropped below 1. The last time this happened was May 9, 2022. LTH-SOPR is also below 1, meaning LTHs as a group are not only underwater, but are actively selling at a loss. (Chart 1) But for those LTHs who haven’t sold yet, every move in BTC price is now a bigger psychological challenge—their price sensitivity is spiking (see Chart 3). Right now, we’re at levels comparable to 2014-11-29, 2018-11-3, and 2022-5-25. (Chart 2) OGs who’ve been through these cycles know the drill: after these pivotal moments, something always triggers panic, LTHs capitulate, and that marks the final shakeout of every bear market. (Chart 3) At this stage, market sentiment typically flips to “ignoring good news, amplifying bad news.” Just like now, you can feel BTC decoupling from macro tailwinds, almost as if some mysterious force has taken control. But this force isn’t any individual, institution, or whale—it’s the collective consensus of most market participants. In plain English: the consensus is broken. Looking back, whenever LTH-RPRL drops below 1, the odds of BTC entering a deep bear phase skyrocket. Note: “deep bear” here doesn’t mean a massive drop in price, but a long, drawn-out grind down. As they say, “a real injury takes a hundred days to heal.” (Chart 4) So now you know: the final shakeout of a bear market is actually the point of max pain and panic for LTHs. But how do you spot it? My take: watch “Entity-Adjusted LTH Realized Loss” (EA-LTH RL)—the bigger the number, the more LTHs are capitulating. From Chart 4, when BTC dumped to $60k on Feb 5, EA-LTH RL hit $680 million—already larger than the panic selling triggered by LUNA’s collapse last cycle. So, is this the final shakeout? I don’t know. But if the next leg down comes with a smaller EA-LTH RL, then I’ll know. And if there isn’t a next leg down? Doesn’t matter—as long as LTH-RPRL stays below 1, there’ll be more chances.