Russia's "strategic return to the US dollar payment system" rumors are absurd. Since the Cold War, the US dollar has been the most powerful tool for global dominance. The person who most fiercely resisted this "dollar hegemony" was Vladimir Putin, and the person who most thoroughly utilized it as a business tool was Donald Trump. According to Bloomberg, Putin, the rebellious leader who vowed to overthrow the US dollar empire, has proposed a return to the dollar system himself. Is this Russia's attempt to drive discord between the US and Europe, or is he portraying some unseen bigger picture? To understand the true nature of this incident, we need to examine the desires of Putin and Trump. For Putin, the US dollar is not an economic tool, but rather a weapon used by the West to control Russia. Since the Crimean crisis in 2014, he has persistently advocated for "de-dollarization," amassing gold, increasing yuan payments, and building an independent fortress. In other words, for him, de-dollarization was a "defense mechanism" for survival. In contrast, for Trump, the US dollar is not a sacred ideology, but rather a tool used in the "cost-benefit" balance sheet. Even allies become a burden if they don't make money, and sanctions are merely a pressure card for negotiations. He believes in "transactions" over ideology, and "practicality" over justification. These two people with such starkly different calculus are now facing each other again at the crossroads of the "US dollar." The details of Putin's internal documents, reported by Bloomberg, are chillingly elaborate. They are not simply a plea for the lifting of sanctions on Russia; they are a thoroughly customized estimate tailored to Trump. As Biden's pro-environment policies come under fire, he proposes a fossil fuel alliance to jointly secure oil and gas hegemony, promises to take care of American companies that have suffered losses in the Russian market, and entice them to share AI and nuclear power hegemony with Russia, not China. Putin clearly understands what Trump hates (eco-friendliness, liberal order) and what he desires (America First, tangible benefits). Furthermore, since the Ukrainian War, Russia has become overly dependent on China, and a superpower like Russia doesn't want to be seen as someone else's pawn. Even a single message suggesting a possible reconciliation with the superpower, the United States, could allow Putin to juggle the US-China divide and increase his value. Putin's leak of an internal document could destabilize the anti-dollar camp (BRICS, etc.), but honestly, this document isn't an official diplomatic document, and its authenticity is uncertain. However, with this single proposal, Putin has complicated the calculations of both his enemies and allies, while simultaneously engaging in sophisticated psychological warfare, using Trump's own language to persuade him. In conclusion, Putin has thrown out a bait, and it remains to be seen whether Trump, China, or Europe will take it. And if someone actually takes the bait and even pretends to conclude or discuss a deal, the market could fluctuate, and my personal conclusion is that international uncertainty will inevitably continue this year, for better or worse! x.com/cointheqoo/status/202216...
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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