As expected, using <10y_RP as BTC's "historical average turnover cost" gives us a much clearer read on market sentiment. When the price approaches <10y_RP (around $64,500), it’s basically the psychological breaking point for the market. After dipping below this level several times between 2/23-2/24 and 2/27-2/28 and then reclaiming it, it’s clear the bulls are fiercely defending this key area—unlike the straight-up capitulation we saw near the STH-RP before. Right now, concerns over U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions are the biggest short-term uncertainty dragging on sentiment. With the dust settling yesterday, the focus will now shift to the scope and duration of the conflict, and how it might impact oil prices. But regardless, what we’re seeing is that without heavy institutional or market maker involvement over the weekend, bears just don't have enough firepower to send BTC crashing from $60k to $50k in one go. Whether this observation holds will need confirmation when U.S. markets open next week. If it does, then the path, logic, and resistance levels we discussed in our previous piece “How Far Can This Rebound Go” remain valid.