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Murphy
03-02
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The Investor Confidence Index has hit "extreme negative values," staying below -0.3 for several days since February 18. The signal is pretty straightforward—investors’ confidence in BTC’s trend is on the verge of collapse... Is this bad news or good news? Personally, I think it’s a mixed bag. The downside is that once confidence is shattered, it’s tough to rebuild in the short term. We’re probably talking months, maybe even quarters, before the gloom lifts. The upside? Historically, whenever the confidence index drops this low, we either see a decent rebound or we’re getting really close to a bear market bottom. What goes down must come up—it’s just how the market works!

Murphy
@Murphychen888
03-01
果然我们用< 10y_RP作为BTC“历史平均换手成本”对情绪的判断显得更加有效。当价格逼近 < 10y_RP($64,500左右),就是市场心理承受的极限。 在2/23-2/24、2/27-2/28多次跌破后又再次站上,说明多头在这一敏感位置的抵抗意愿非常强烈, 不像此前在接近STH-RP时的直接滑跪。 x.com/murphychen888/…
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