Based on the behavior of Super Whale, a BTC cycle phase analysis shows that they are at the top of the Bitcoin ecosystem food chain, with almost no natural enemies; they play a key role as the ruler and decision-maker in multiple cycles; and they are also the most powerful "smart money" in the entire class. They are not a single person or entity, but a clandestine group—Super Whales. According to Glassnode data, there are currently only 88 on-chain addresses holding ≥ 10,000 BTC. At its peak, there were 121 such addresses during the 2022 bear market. (Figure 1 - Number of addresses with a balance ≥ 10k BTC) They always manage to accumulate shares before the start of a bull market, and then distribute them over the time it takes to reach the top of the entire bull market. For example, at their peak in October 2020, they accumulated 2.47 million BTC, but by October 2021, they only had 2.02 million left. In 12 months, they completed the entire bull market top range, distributing 455,000 BTC. (Figure 2 - Total supply of Whale Wallet) In this cycle, their peak accumulation of tokens occurred in June 2024 (2.54 million tokens), after which the holdings continued to decline until reaching the lowest point in October 2025 (2.15 million tokens). This time, it took 16 months to distribute 392,000 tokens. The distribution period was longer than the previous cycle, but the total number of tokens was less. Now, this group has begun a new round of accumulation: as of March 2, their total holdings have rebounded to 2.26 million tokens. This is on par with (or even slightly higher than) their holdings in June 2022 (after Luna was exposed). From this perspective, based on Super Whale's behavior, we can judge that the current bear market cycle is roughly in the "middle" or "late" stage. Once they've accumulated enough capital, that will be the middle of the next bull market, after which another large-scale distribution will begin, and so on, in a never-ending cycle...

This kind of on-chain data is what's worth referencing. It's far more meaningful than focusing on a single whale(like xxx).