MVRV Extreme Deviation: Probability Boundaries for Bear Market Rallies When it comes to daily-level bear market rallies, aside from tracking BRS signals, I pay close attention to the “MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Range” — a high-efficiency indicator validated by historical data. Extreme deviation here refers to statistical dispersion; under the normal distribution assumption, the standard deviation maps to probability ranges. Looking at the past 10 years of data: (Fig 1 – MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Range – Overview) 1. When BTC breaks below the yellow line, it signals entry into Phase 1 of a bear market. After this point, daily-level rallies rarely reclaim the yellow line; even if there’s a slight reclaim, it usually fails soon after — this confirms the signal (see 2018 on the chart). 2. When BTC breaks below the green line, it marks Phase 2 of the bear market. Similarly, rallies struggle to break above the green line until the bear bottom is fully formed (see 2014 and 2022 on the chart). (Fig 2 – MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Range – 2026) On Jan 14, 2026, BTC rallied to $97,000, hitting resistance at the yellow line. At that time, the BRS signal had already reset to zero, giving us more confidence that this was the rally top. Related post: x.com/Murphychen888/status/201... (Fig 3 – Bitcoin Risk Signal) This time, the rally peaked at $72,691 on March 4th, almost touching the green line, while the BRS signal hadn’t reset to zero yet. 🚩 My personal take: 1. Even if this rally isn’t over, it’s likely already near the top. 2. My estimated range for the local top is around $74,000–$78,000. But there’s a unique scenario to consider: BTC still hasn’t broken below the “< 10y_RP” level, which is closer to BTC’s true historical average on-chain cost basis. Related post: x.com/Murphychen888/status/202... In other words, as long as BTC doesn’t break below the “< 10y_RP” extreme, there’s still a chance for a “shallow bear” path. So, the special case to watch for: If BTC manages to break above the green line ($74,000) in the MVRV extreme deviation range and holds above it on retests, the probability increases that the bear bottom is in. Of course, I still see scenarios 1 and 2 as most likely, while scenario 3 is less probable. (Disclaimer: This is just my personal view, not financial advice. Stay rational, frens!)

Headaches are just a matter of probability. Dollar-cost averaging is the only thing that suits my temperament.