How should we view the recent sustained net inflows into ETFs? ETFs have become the primary gateway for traditional capital entering BTC this cycle, objectively reflecting market sentiment and shifts in demand. Some frens have been asking about the impact of the ongoing ETF net inflows on the market, so let’s break it down with some data and highlight a few key points to watch: (Figure 1 – Spot ETF Net Flows) Figure 1: Both the rallies in October 2024 and April 2025 kicked off with strong, sustained ETF net inflows. Over the past two weeks (14 days), the average daily ETF net inflow has been 1,710 BTC – a scale reminiscent of the early stages of previous bull trends. But the crucial question is: can this momentum be maintained and even scaled up? History shows us that similar patterns emerged in Oct 2025 and Jan 2026, but fizzled out because they couldn’t sustain the flow – just a one-off pump. (Figure 2 – CME Open Interest & ETF Holdings) Figure 2: Remember, “ETF net inflows” don’t always equal “actual spot buying.” Some of that flow is just arbitrage – buying ETFs while shorting futures to capture the basis, which is a neutral play. Only when there’s a significant spot exposure between CME open interest and ETF holdings over a period of time does it signal real spot demand and directional buying. As we can see in Figure 2, during this rally there’s a 31,078 BTC spot exposure between ETF holdings and CME, which is a stark contrast to Jan 2026 when nearly all positions were just arb trades. This means there’s real money actually accumulating more than 60k BTC, but it’s still not quite at the levels we saw in May 2025 or Oct 2024. (Figure 3 – Futures Rolling Basis Annualized Yield) Figure 3: Binance’s 3-month rolling futures basis annualized yield confirms the above. In Jan 2026, the annualized yield for basis arb was 4.57%; now it’s only 2.92%, which is no longer attractive compared to US Treasury yields. So, under these conditions, we can assume that there’s little to no arb capital participating in the current ETF net inflows. 🚩 TL;DR – What matters most when tracking ETF net inflow data: 1. Can the net inflows keep coming and continue to grow? 2. How much of the flow is real spot buying (watch the spot exposure)? These are the key factors that’ll determine how far this rally can go, how high it might run, and even impact the duration and dynamics of the future bear market bottom.