According to TechFlow TechFlow, on March 8th, Garrett Jin, an agent of the "1011 crash insider whale," published an article on the X platform stating that there is a clear correlation between historical oil supply gaps and oil price increases: in 1973, a supply gap of about 7% drove oil prices up by about 300%, in 1979, a gap of about 5% drove up prices by about 150%, and in 1990, a gap of about 6% drove up prices by about 130%.
The potential supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz is currently around 15%, far exceeding historical cases. Most institutional models currently assume that the shock will last only "a few days to a few weeks," but almost no models expect the shock to last for months. In fact, once the market consensus on the duration is broken, more long positions may be forced into the market, thereby further pushing up oil prices.
