Morgan Stanley: Geopolitical shocks are the "final blow," and the sell-off is nearing its end.

According to ME News, on March 18 (UTC+8), Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, Michael Wilson, released a report offering a view contrary to the current market panic. He believes that the current sharp correction is mature in both time and magnitude, and the market is nearing its bottom rather than the beginning of a decline. Data shows that 50% of stocks in the Russell 3000 index have fallen more than 20% from their 52-week highs, and the same proportion exceeds 40% in the S&P 500, indicating that half of the stocks are already in a bear market, and the apparent decline underestimates the breadth of internal losses. Wilson believes this sell-off is a "correction within a bull market," beginning last fall when liquidity tightened, far earlier than the recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The current capitulation-style sell-off often marks an end rather than a beginning. Unlike previous economic recessions accompanied by deteriorating earnings, current S&P 500 earnings are growing at a rate of 13% and continuing to accelerate. Wilson's view is based on two assumptions: the Iranian conflict remains under control, and oil prices remain below $100 per barrel. If oil prices break through and hold above $100, the market could escalate from a correction into a more severe crisis. (Source: ME)