The market has already given its most direct feedback: Trump's speech during prime time reiterated his usual rhetoric—the more successful the campaign, the stronger the US. What I find most noteworthy are the following statements: "in the next two to three weeks...hit them extremely hard"; and "may strike energy infrastructure/power plants, bringing them back to the Stone Ages." Yesterday I saw an article discussing whether the US should fight or withdraw. It pointed out that according to the US War Powers Act, military action taken by the president without congressional authorization must end by the end of April at the latest. Therefore, the troop increase is intended to create a "military victory" as an explanation for the withdrawal, avoiding being seen as a defeat. Therefore, the campaign is likely to escalate in the coming weeks, with a greater possibility of striking nuclear facilities than the riskier island-seizing operation.

Recommended reading: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx09nWTGdS3...…