Since the beginning of this year, these three tracks have also undergone some changes, and we have also rethought it, recording it as Memo for your reference.
Author: Lao Bai
Cover: Photo by Manson Yim on Unsplash
The recent Hong Kong conference is in full swing, and the primary market has picked up. ABCDE Q1 saw more than 100 projects and personally experienced several particularly hot tracks in the market, the hottest of which include Appchain, ZK and Gaming.
Since the beginning of this year, these three tracks have also undergone some changes, and we have also rethought it, recording it as Memo for your reference.
1. Appchain (especially RAAS, Rollup as a Service)
RAAS is a track that emerged at the end of last year. It has a lot to do with the release of OP Stack, but Appchain as a Service has existed for a long time. Represented by Cosmos SDK, it has gradually become popular after Celestia proposed a modular blockchain. RAAS can be seen Cheng is one of the recent hotter subsets.
Why Appchain as a Service may be OverHype recently
First of all, if you are a developer and want to build an Appchain yourself, the options you face are as follows
If your chain is EVM, then you can
1. Make a pure ETH side chain like Ronin (I believe few people will do this now)
2. Use Skale to make an ETH side chain
3. Use AVAX to send a link and connect to AVAX 's P link
4. Use Polygon Supernet to send an EVM chain
5. Use BAS to make a side chain based on BNB Chain
6. Make a Rollup Appchain with OP Stack
7. Use Caldera to make a Rollup Appchain (essentially OP Stack)
8. Use Zk-Sync to make a L3 (it is expected to be seen this year)
9. At the time of writing, Arbitrum also released their Orbit, which is also a L3 infrastructure similar to Opstack
10. There are many projects under development such as Opside, Stackr, Sovereign SDK, etc.
If your chain is non-EVM, then you can
1. Use Cosmos SDK to make a chain, or be independent and self-reliant, or share ATOM security (ICS proposal just passed)
2. Use Substrate to send a chain, or bid for Polkadot slots, or connect to the Octopus network, or don’t connect to anyone, and your time will be quiet
3. Use Celestia's Rollkit to make a Rollup Appchain, DA uses Celestia, settlement is optional
4. Make a Rollup Appchain with Dymension
5. Make a Rollup Appchain with Saga
6. Make an L3 based on Starkware (I expect to see it this year)
7. There must be many more under development, which I don’t know or have missed or didn’t think of
Have you ever felt—"There are so many options?!"
Secondly, which applications are suitable for Appchain? Remember the article about whether Uniswap should make itself an Appchain and the debates on the Internet a few months ago?
In general, if Uniswap is made into an Appchain, it will have advantages such as transaction fees, token value capture, anti-Mev, resource monopoly, etc., but at the same time gain user experience, security, and the debuff of reduced composability
In short, we have not seen Uniswap's plan or "ambition" to become an Appchain
Compound originally wanted to use Substrate as a chain, but later gave up. Now both Compound and AAVE V3 are Multichain deployments. At present, it seems that the possibility of making Appchain is not great.
As for Curve, it should never have been planned
Only DYDX, which has no reliance on composability, chose to go to Cosmos to build an Appchain. It should be seen in Q3 this year. Perhaps after Luna, this is the most anticipated Appchain. At that time, DYDX will also show a path to many Builders - if you occupy a leading position in a track and do not have high requirements for composability, it is Make Sense to independently build a "sovereign + high-performance" Appchain. Before that, you can choose a general-purpose chain ecology as a Dapp to develop and upgrade monsters, and wait until the level is high enough before flying solo
This path is relatively feasible. For example, if a SocialFi Dapp based on the Lens Protocol becomes bigger and stronger in the future, with a high daily activity, the throughput of Polygon cannot be satisfied, and the above infrastructure can be used to make a Rollup Appchain to completely make Sense . However, in the short term for this kind of case, the number of projects that can meet the above conditions to make a chain should not be as large as the infrastructure that can issue a chain...
Then there is a track that is naturally suitable for directly sending a chain to make Appchain. This track project will be the largest user of the above-mentioned infrastructure. At present, before the problem of inter-chain heterogeneous composability is completely overcome, it is unlikely that non-Cosmos ecological Defi will take this path. The most suitable track is undoubtedly Gamefi (including Onchain Autonomous World — on-chain autonomous world). For example, DFK and Crab based on AVAX , OPcraft, which was very popular some time ago, Curio, which uses Caldera to send chains, etc.
Looking at my Little Fox and Keplr wallets, after the collapse of Luna, it seems that except for DFK and Osmosis, I don’t seem to have used other Appchains. This makes me wonder, we really need “dozens of Appchains” in this cycle. Or is it such a huge infrastructure as Rollup as Service?
Finally, the RAAS about the recent fire can be "slightly complained" separately
1.1. OP series
The RAAS based on the OP system seen so far is basically done by Fork OP Stack, which has no technical barriers. The code and documents of OP are very neat and clear. Our ABCDE technical masters can basically follow the documents in less than a day. Set up an OP Rollup Appchain, so the value provided by this type of RAAS to customers lies in the added value of Sequencer, block browser and rapid deployment, and the marketing ability is far greater than the technical ability
Furthermore, the TPS, block time, usage fee, etc. of this kind of Appchain are basically completely homogeneous with Optimism, without any optimization measures for performance costs, so in theory, unless the OP is blocked, otherwise you are on this AppChain. Can't get a "better experience" than the OP Universal Chain. And OP 's current shortcomings, this type of RAAS is also completely inherited, such as the fraud certificate that has not been online for a long time...
But I still want to praise the vision of the OP Stack super chain. The more Rollup Chains issued by OP Stack or OP Stack Fork in the future, the more likely the OP Super Chain will become a similar auction without slots, with its own communication protocol. Asynchronous and composable "Poca-like" architecture, although this vision is still far away, but the pie is really delicious. The OP also relied on the narrative of the OP Stack to compete equally with Arbitrum's Defi innovation in full swing. Halfway through the research report, Arbitrum also released Orbit. I said that it is impossible not to eat such a large piece of fat. Coin + new project completed in one go, OP VS Arb read again!
1.2. ZK series
Theoretically speaking, ZK series RAAS is likely to improve the Appchain user experience, because ZK-Sync, Scroll, etc. that take the ZKEVM route focus on compatibility, so the circuit design will sacrifice some efficiency, and there is no way to target Optimized for a specific Dapps. If RAAS can do separate circuit design or optimization according to different Dapp , the performance and experience of ZK Appchain must be better than the general-purpose ZkEVM
However, there are too few talents in this world who understand both ZK and blockchain. The few people are basically concentrated on Starknet, Zk-Sync, Scroll, and Polygon . For the ZK-based RAAS currently on the market, Basically, it is taking the Alpha open source version of Zk-Sync and sending you the Fork chain of Zk-Sync. . After Polygon and Scroll are online + fully open source, the most is to provide customers with options. Do you like ZK-Sync or Polygon or Scroll's EVM? There are so many points. When creating a Linux virtual machine in AWS, you choose Redhat, or Centos, or Debian immediate sense of sight
So, in the same way, there are no technical barriers. BD is still the king, and it is not as mature as the OP system. After all, the official version of the ZK system Rollup has not yet been launched or is not fully open source. What can be used now is only some open source beta versions. , The experience and the like are definitely not as smooth as the OP 's. I hope that in the future, we can see the emergence of ZK-based RAAS with separate circuit design or optimization for each Appchain
Two. ZK
If Appchain as Service can be regarded as the representative track of modular blockchain, then this year there are two major studies of blockchain - modularization and ZK.
The obstacles of ZK can be viewed in the following aspects
2.1 Expansion
Needless to say, the Mainnet of several major ZK-Rollups have been launched this year, but they are still online. After the launch, there are actually quite a lot of problems
- Completeness
At present, whether it is ZK-Sync, Scroll, or Polygon, all the EVM-compatible Mainnet are online, except for Starknet, but there is also a "son" named kakarot on Starknet who is doing ZKEVM. The author learned from ZK experts in the industry that in fact, the mainnet launch of several major stars ZK- Rollup is more or less a bit of a feeling of "rushing ducks to the shelves", and the completion or maturity of each product has not really To reach the traditional "Mainnet completion level", there will inevitably be various problems in performance or bugs after it goes online, and there is a high probability that it will need to continue to upgrade and patch in the future. This point can probably be seen from the procrastination of the testnets originally planned by various companies from last year to this year. The reason is that ZKEVM is really "too difficult", so difficult that the top engineers in the industry will spend much longer than originally thought to overcome it. As for why they are rushing to go to the Mainnet this year, I think it has something to do with the continuous enrichment of the ecology on the OP side, the continuous upgrade of the Mainnet and the pressure brought by the stability. Go online first. The big deal in the future is to keep updating the iterative version.
- performance
The performance of the ZK series, at least at this stage, must be <= OP series. Of course, it may not be obvious from the user’s perspective, because the Sequencer will confirm it for you within a few seconds. ZK proofs can actually be done slowly (usually it takes 10-20 minutes to complete a block). The real realization of "Finality" in the Internet is not very Careful, nor can it be perceived. The current popular circuit optimization, or hardware acceleration, actually accelerates the 10-20 minutes of proof time, but it has no effect on user experience.
- cost
The OP 's fraud proof basically costs nothing, but your ZK proof will consume a lot of computing power, which is all money...Of course you can say that ZK uploads less data to L1 than OP , that is, to CallData The gas cost over there is lower, but the probability of this reduced gas is that it cannot compare with the extra money spent on Prover, especially after the 4844 blob is released, the cost of uploading L1 will be greatly reduced, and the cost advantage of the OP will be more obvious than it is now
- Safety
This is a question of different opinions. The traditional understanding is that ZK is based on mathematical proof, OP is based on economic games, mathematics > game, so ZK is safer than OP
This is of course fine in the long run.
But that's not necessarily the case at this stage.
The so-called security means that the transaction must be "terminated" on ETH L1. At present, Arb is submitted every two or three minutes, and OP is about 10 minutes. On the ZK side, due to the time-consuming and labor-intensive proof, it will basically be at the level of 10-20 minutes, and it is still in the case of full blocks. If the ecology is not prosperous enough and the blocks are not full, the time will be longer
Therefore, although mathematics is indeed greater than games, the transaction termination time of the ZK system at this stage is much higher than that of the OP system. This depends on the evolution of the ZK algorithm, circuit optimization and hardware acceleration to continuously reduce the time of 10-20 minutes. If Which day can really be shortened to the level of 10-20 seconds (5-10 years later?), then the ZK system, at least in the field of security, can definitely explode the OP
2.2. Middleware and others
This is actually a track that many people are more optimistic about compared to expansion, because using ZK to do expansion is a very "heavy" job. You can see that these few Rollup have been tossing for several years before the Mainnet is launched, and the middleware is relatively light. A large amount, and can perfectly play the ZK characteristics
The hottest middleware track is naturally Interoperability — the track of interoperability, through ZK proof, exempts the requirement for third-party witnesses, greatly improves the security of the bridge, and even opens up some originally separated and even difficult to communicate with each other. Ecology, such as between various Layer2s, or the IBC interconnection between EVM and Cosmos, etc. Several teams currently working include Succinct Labs (their Telepathy product was released a few days ago, realizing the one-way ZK bridge of ETH ), Electron Labs (the first to propose the concept of ZK-IBC), Polyhedra (ZK Bridge, ZK DID, first project from ABCDE)
Although this track is much lighter than Rollup , it is still a super hard-core + time-consuming and labor-intensive track. It is highly unlikely that we want to see a two-way ZK bridge with satisfactory performance and safety this year. Based entirely on the interoperability of ZK, we still have to find a timeline of 2–3 years to plan
As for other ZK tracks, this year is a bit of a blowout feeling. Anyone who has been to ETH Denver knows it. It can be said that there are all kinds of things with ZK, such as on-chain safes, DIDs, oracles, and even AI and machine learning. Done. How to put it, some of them are indeed Make Sense, and there are many that you will be puzzled - it seems that this thing can be made without ZK... All in all, there are so many ICO explosions in 2017, using the blockchain as a hammer, and looking for nails everywhere. At that time, various decentralized taxi-hailing, decentralized Airbnb and other projects that seem nonsensical now were born, but this time, the blockchain was replaced by ZK. We feel that we want to use ZK for any track. He reforms...
3. Gamefi
Gamefi may be the hottest track at present, not one of them, counting the projects watched + chatted in the past few months, if it is divided into each sub-track, Gamefi should be the most
The reason is not difficult to understand. On the one hand, V God himself said a few years ago that finance and games will be the first two scenarios where the blockchain will be implemented.
On the other hand, attempts in various directions such as Defi, storage, Socialfi, etc., have made unsatisfactory progress in Mass Adoption. Although the myth of X2Earn is shattered, Axie and StepN let everyone in the circle see the hope of "breaking the circle". Many people even firmly believe that to break the circle on a large scale, they have to rely on "games"
So for a while, not only Web2 game developers began to cast their eyes here frequently, including technical teams from major manufacturers and well-known game studios, but also Web3’s various original ecological NFT, Defi and other ecological circles. "Add a layer of Gamefi" to your own things. The Dookey Dash launched by Ape some time ago was a relatively successful attempt.
But the current Gamefi track is actually in a slightly embarrassing period. The pain and death spiral of X2Earn has just ended. How to strike a balance between motivation and gameplay? "Crossing the river by feeling the stones. At this stage, a consensus has basically been reached - Free 2 Play, such as running shoes and Axie. The mode of paying for NFT before playing is no longer available on the Internet.
We currently see the following forms of groping
- 3A level — from one extreme to another. If Axie is emphasizing Earn, 3A are emphasizing Play, and the degree of emphasis varies. Lighter ones, such as those focusing on the Web3 circle, attract Web3 players to play through NFT and other forms, and heavy ones, such as those focusing on the Web2 circle, completely follow the traditional Internet mobile game model from production to operation to local promotion. The system is moved to the chain, and even the wallet may be built-in for you + no effect...
- Leisure and Social - Web2 We have all experienced the era of stealing vegetables, farms, and grabbing parking spaces. Will Web3's Gamefi also have such a period? Social, casual, with a little Earn? Not sure about the future, but at least a direction that hasn't been explored much before
- The new X to Earn mode - the Bet to Earn mode represented by PSI is the most seen at present, also known as Risk to Earn. Simply put, it is to associate Earn with your skills and proficiency, Imagine a game similar to Web3 Chicken Eats, where 100 players have to spend $1 to participate in the game, and the winner will take away the $100 prize. This can basically solve the Ponzi model that relied on the rapid growth of new players and the inevitable death spiral later. Because this economic model roughly becomes PVP. However, this kind of game is similar to 3A, and requires high enough playability to retain players, because the economic incentives for ordinary users have become very small
- Free to Own based on NFT — Represented by DigiDaigaku, in fact, Ape ’s Dookey Dash also has a similar feel. In short, it is to attract players to hold NFT for free or at a very low price, and then find ways to continue to give NFT Empowerment, this requires a high level of suspense + mystery + marketing capabilities in the early stage of the team, and the same high requirements in the development and production of games in the later stage, so it is a route with a very high threshold, and the number of NFTs is often limited to 10,000 in the early stage. Expanding the number of people in the circle is also a big problem
- Gaming Nintendo — This is naturally represented by TresureDAO and Gala, among which Gala's games are more "heavy" and TresureDAO's games are more "mini-game" style. Many similar mini-games have entered its ecology. Small games on Web2 have been enduring for a long time. No one knows whether Web3 can be successfully reproduced
- Defi gamification — here DefiKingdom is considered to be the only seedling, its ambition is also very large, the system is extremely complex, and people can see the visual sense of "Fantasy Westward Journey on the chain". However, after the 100-fold Hype in 21 years, no major progress has been made, and the currency price has also been sluggish after returning to the original point. This complex Gamefi that is deeply integrated with Defi seems to have a rough future.
- Fully Onchain Game (full-chain game) — This may be the most hype Gamefi category on ETH Denver, for no other reason. The other major categories have more or less the shadow of Web2.5, and only full-chain games are fully equipped Web3 games with blockchain features, some of which cannot even be called games, should be called Onchain Autonomous World- on-chain autonomous world. This may be the third type of truly "blockchain-native" product after Defi and NFT. But just as Defi (MakerDAO) and NFT (Encryption Kitties) were born in 2017 at the same time, but broke out in 2020 and 2021 respectively, Fully Onchain Game is also in an extremely early exploration period, and it may also take 3-4 years Only time will win the bright moment
It is hard to say which one or several of these seven major directions will reach the end. Furthermore, there is still a fundamental contradiction in the development of Gamefi. Although games are the easiest way to circle users from outside the circle, the essence of games is actually to create a world that is divorced from reality, allowing people to temporarily enjoy themselves in the busy work and life. Escape and enter the "pure land" of the game park. And the link with Web3 or the bottom layer of the blockchain makes it inevitable that Gamefi will be connected to the real world again through some form of financialization. Whether this connection will break the most essential "pure land" function of the game may be worthwhile. a question to ponder
Summarize:
Rethinking the three most popular tracks at the moment does not mean that we are not optimistic about these tracks. On the contrary, ABCDE is optimistic about the above three tracks for a long time, and has already or planned to lay out on these tracks . We tend to overestimate the short-term value of some technologies, and often underestimate the long-term value of some technologies. These tracks may not be able to match investment opportunities with the primary and secondary markets or bring short-term return on investment. But for long-term investment VCs like us with a 5-year exit period for LPs, time will be our best friend.
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