One is confidence. Confidence is more important than gold. What is Bitcoin? Fraud, gray production, collapse, rat poison? When ETFs are passed, it will mean that they will have the same status as other stocks in the U.S., be subject to supervision and recognition, and their status in the minds of investors will become a type of asset allocation.
As for this type of asset allocation, it is not too important whether BTC is compared to gold or ETH is compared to a technology company with ultra-high profit margins and growth rate. What is important is that it will definitely rise.
The second is funding. At present, various funds, institutions and all compliant funds will not directly purchase Bitcoin, and even Grayscale’s weird products that can only be entered but not taken out are used by some people.
But when ETF is passed, people can invest openly, and the herd mentality will be more obvious in the financial market. "Buying new stocks" and "looking for new coins" are logically similar, and people will continue to pay attention to new ETFs.
The high volatility of Bitcoin will allow the largest proportion of speculative funds in the financial market to enter. Some people say that after experiencing a 300% increase in one day in the crypto, they can never go back to the 100% increase in the stock market in three years...
The third is slow cattle. The adoption of the Bitcoin ETF only provides confidence and possibility, but in the short term it does not mean that Bitcoin will become another thing, and it will be gone if you don’t buy it. It will always be accompanied by fluctuations, just like Coinbase's stock. It rises wildly in the bull market and plummets in the bear market. In fact, it is still the same thing.
However, the adoption of ETF will give Bitcoin and high-quality targets in the crypto the possibility of long-term rise. Whether it is because of the narrative of fighting inflation or because the new ecological scene really changes people's lifestyles, that day will always come. .
If there is a high probability that Bitcoin will rise to US$300,000 per coin in the future, this will trigger a thought: In addition to Bitcoin, are there any other targets that are suitable for long-term holding in the 10-year dimension?
Why is it necessary to use the 10-year dimension? In the past, the crypto was actually unable to do so. Except for people like 9 Gods who early took Bitcoin as a target that would never be sold, other targets, even if they were strong like EOS, could not be held for a year.
But a major change that the adoption of ETF will bring is: in the long run, shit coin will eventually return to zero, and there must be a few high-value coins that will grow into giants.
ETH currently has this potential, but ETH is an application chain. Unlike Bitcoin, there is no upper limit for growth purely based on narrative.
The success of ETH depends on the ecology, but just like the success of GMX depends on dividends, but the growth rate is also limited by the dividends, if the ecology never has applications that are truly adopted on a large scale, it will just be some garbage applications that are cut off from each other. The consequence was that all the retail investors in the market were wiped out, and they turned around and left the crypto. [Speaking of this, it is necessary to take the time to write another article about the crypto ecosystem for retail investors. It is necessary to provide some user education, which is good for everyone. 】
The accompanying picture is Microsoft's weekly chart, which can give us some reference, that is, how value projects achieve "in the long run, the current fluctuation is a straight line."
In 1995, WIN95 was released, rising from 5 to 60.
In 2000, the Internet bubble burst, and the largest route dropped from 77% to 15.
In 2015, it finally began to emerge from the 15-year decline.
Then from 60 to 300.
I have a feeling that maybe in the financial market, all short-term players are insensitive to price and market value. People always tend to look at the increase, so the increase from 60 to 300 is not high, just like the increase from 5. I don’t think it’s high even to 60, but it’s 12 times...
But from our God’s perspective, in fact, it is very tiring and difficult to do the swing in this process. If a fool comes and buys Win95 when it is released, it will be 60 times this year - and this does not include dividends. , dividends, etc.
The above content about stocks may have inaccuracies, "I am not an expert in this area", it is just to express the common view that "long-term holding is not applicable in the crypto", which may have significant changes after the adoption of ETF.
In the future, it may be a more high-yield approach to find high-quality assets and hold them for the long term instead of being bound by the so-called 4-year bull and bear market. The point is that at other times we can exercise, read, and travel, but we don’t need to watch K Line.
The biggest purpose of investing and making money is to make yourself comfortable.
Therefore, it is more ideal if you can find a way to make yourself comfortable with the investment itself.
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Twitter: @BTCdayu
