The Bitcoin halving event is approaching, only about 10 days left. Faced with the upcoming Bitcoin Halving , how should we respond to the futures market?
Based on historical data of previous Bitcoin halvings, it is common for Bitcoin to experience a period of price decline after the halving, followed by an extended accumulation period, and then a rally and create new highs. Based on observing the current Bitcoin daily chart, we can see that the Bitcoin price is in the process of forming a triangle pattern, which means that Bitcoin could face a bullish or bearish period.
Additionally, we can also get some information from the MACD and moving Medium in bull markets. Currently, the MACD index is still in a bearish phase, while the Medium line in the bull market has reached the level of 51,000 - 53,000 USD. While ETF support for Bitcoin could move the market differently, I personally think Bitcoin will likely go through a correction period, followed by a post-decline accumulation period. half, and finally a breakout period to the upside.
I think Bitcoin's OTC market has a big influence on this. Bitcoin production always comes from miners, and they always sell Bitcoin to large institutions in the OTC market. Recent reports have shown that with increased demand for Bitcoin and reduced liquidation from sellers, the amount of Bitcoin in circulation has dropped to its lowest level in history. Analysts estimate that Bitcoin's remaining liquidation is currently only enough to meet demand growth over the next 6-12 months.
Based on the above information, the amount of Bitcoin available is only enough to meet growing demand in the next 6-12 months, which means that if the price of Bitcoin wants to spike, a thorough cleanup is required. inventory, before the new Bitcoin price can increase. With the demand for Bitcoin ETF increasing, I think 6-12 months is just an estimate based on the current situation, so in addition to paying attention to Bitcoin price, we should also pay attention to the supply situation Bitcoin ETF demand and performance.
In short, I think Bitcoin will probably go through a post-halving correction period, then wait for Bitcoin inventory in the OTC market to dry up, and Bitcoin price will naturally increase. At that time, large institutions will not be able to buy Bitcoin on any OTC market, and will likely switch to buying on the cash market, which will likely drive the price of Bitcoin up.
The results of major Ethereum ETFs are about to be announced, is there any notable information?
Ethereum completed the Decum upgrade last month. However, despite the constant positive news, Ethereum recently seems to be overshadowed by its own layer two network. Compared to Ethereum's layer two networks like Base and Blast, Ethereum's buzz seems less prominent.
At the next stage, the Ethereum story will revolve around XEM an Ethereum ETF can be approved or not. Since the Bitcoin ETF was approved last year, many in the market are expecting that an Ethereum ETF will also be approved. But can an Ethereum ETF be approved? Many people have commented on this.
Recently, many large traditional US financial institutions, such as ARK Invest and Bitwise, have commented. Ark Invest estimates the odds of a cash Ethereum ETF being approved in May have decreased, while Bitwise's Chief Information Officer also said he expects the US Securities and Exchange Commission to delay approval of a cash Ethereum ETF. until December. In addition, the founder of Three Arrows Capital, SuZhu, also said that for Ethereum to benefit in the long term, delaying the approval of an Ethereum ETF is probably the best stimulus.
Although the deadline for the Ethereum ETF is approaching, with the results release for the VanEck Ethereum ETF expected in May 2024. However, I think the big date for the Ethereum ETF will be in August 2024, when the results Approval of Blackrock's Ethereum ETF to be announced. BlackRock has always been an industry leader in crypto ETFs and asset management, and the Ethereum ETF they issue (IBIT) has surpassed MicroStragy's Bitcoin holdings over the past few months. Therefore, I think final Ethereum ETF approval will likely need to wait until August 2024 to be confirmed.
Large centralized exchanges around the world are also expanding, and the location with the most potential for expansion is in South Korea?
The globalization of cryptocurrencies can be considered the most important technological milestone in the 21st century, countries are actively implementing cryptocurrencies, trying to Chia their share in this industry. Many countries such as the US, China and even the UK also participate here. However, recently I have paid attention to an Asian country, which has even attracted the investment of a lot of Capital and centralized exchanges, which is South Korea. Why is Korea able to attract such investment Capital ?
Recently, we can see many centralized exchanges gradually shifting their resources into the Korean market. For example, the CEO of Binance secretly visited Korea and tried to contact financial authorities to resolve the issue of entry into the Korean market. Additionally, Crypto.com will officially launch on April 29 in Korea. South Korea also recently established the Defense Artificial Intelligence Research Center, demonstrating its positivity towards developing new technologies and projects.
In addition, the amount of cryptocurrency trading in South Korea is also one of the largest in the world, and many young Koreans are also involved here. Additionally, the two main parties in South Korea have pledged to reopen restrictions on cryptocurrency ETFs during major elections, in a bid to attract voter support. Overall, through a combination of warnings and policies, South Korea may be one of the most notable countries in Asia that we should pay attention to.
