Bitcoin price prediction after halving
1. Stock-to-flow model prediction
In May 2025, it will reach 1,293,182 US dollars, which is close to the 1,500,000 US dollars predicted by Cathie Wood.
Data source: Glassnode
2. Linear model prediction
The linear model uses a fixed window of 18 months after the halving to calculate the price change rate, and then uses the linear model to predict the change rate in the next 18 months after the halving, and obtains a 375.66% increase forecast.
Data source: CoinMarketCap
By observing the stock-to-flow model and the actual price changes, it can be seen that the strongest price increases of Bitcoin occur about a year after the halving. The linear regression model predicts the rate of change one and a half years after the halving, and the result is 375.66% , that is, Bitcoin will reach 260,000 US dollars around December 20, 2025. The above are all model data predictions and are not investment advice.
Bitcoin halving is about 8 days away from today (2024.04.12)
Halving countdown: https://www.binance.com/en/events/bitcoin-halving
Market technical and sentiment environment analysis
Sentiment Analysis Components
Technical indicators
Price trend
BTC prices rose 2.22% and ETH prices rose 5.26% over the past week.
The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week.
The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week.
The table shows the price change rate over the past week.
Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)
In the past week, BTC was above the concentrated trading area, and ETH price fluctuated within the concentrated trading area.
The above picture shows the distribution of BTC's dense trading areas in the past week.
The above picture shows the distribution of ETH's dense trading areas in the past week.
The table shows the weekly intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.
Volume and Open Interest
BTC and ETH volumes were largest at 4.8 up in the past week; open interest was up slightly for BTC and down slightly for ETH compared to the beginning of the week.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle shows the trading volume, the bottom shows the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by the trading volume, red means closing positions, yellow means slowly accumulating positions, and black means crowded state.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by the trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility
In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC was highest at 4.10 and that of ETH was highest at 4.8; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH both decreased compared to the beginning of the week.
The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average.
Event-driven
Data source: https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733
This week, on 2024.04.10 20:30 (Beijing time), the CPI value of 3.5% was higher than the expected 3.4%. After the data was released, Bitcoin fell slightly to a new low in the short term and then rebounded to a high of around US$71,500. The price generated a large turnover at US$68,000, forming a support level at this position in the short term. The current price is above the support, and we need to continue to observe whether the market has enough upward momentum.
Sentiment Indicators
Momentum Sentiment
In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while CSI 300 performed the worst.
The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.
Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment
The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 12.7%, and short-term interest rates fell to around 13.1%.
The yellow line is the highest price of USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table shows the average returns of USD interest rates at different holding days in the past
Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment
The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 15.1%, and contract leverage sentiment rebounded slightly from a low level.
The blue line is the funding rate of B TC on Binance , and the red line is its 7-day average.
The table shows the average return of BTC fees for different holding days in the past.
Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week rose to around 0.57, resulting in divergent market conditions among different varieties.
In the above figure, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'dgb', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation
Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 25.6% of them were priced above the 30-day moving average, 18.6% of them were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 16.2% of them were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 11.6% of them were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that small coins in the overall market were still in a relatively weak stage.
The above picture is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'dgb', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] 30-day proportion of each width indicator
Summarize
In the past week's market, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both fell after rising on April 8. The historical volatility and trading volume were both large when the price rose on April 8 and the CPI was announced, and the open interest did not change much. The implied volatility of BTC and ETH has decreased compared with the beginning of the week. In addition, the funding rate has rebounded slightly from a low level, indicating that the sentiment of contract trading has gradually warmed up. The overall market width indicator of small coins is still in a relatively weak stage. In terms of events, after the CPI data was announced on April 10, the prices of mainstream coins fell to a short-term low and then rebounded. Bitcoin will be halved in the next week, and investors can pay close attention to the investment opportunities of halving.
Twitter: @DerivativesCN
Website: https://dcbot.ai/
