Bitcoin did not hold steady near 66,500 and began to fall at 20:00 last night. The market interpreted this as Israel’s action against Rafah, so it fell. In fact, this is not entirely true. The real reason is that Bitcoin is still in a weak adjustment. As mentioned in previous analysis, it will adjust repeatedly and will repeatedly test the bottom support many times.
At the 4-hour level, the strong support position near the bottom of 60,000 is re-verified. In the short term, the main focus is on verifying support and weak fluctuations.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways recently, and people often ask if the bull market is still there?
The answer to this question can be found just from the increase in holdings of Grayscale Trust. From 2021 to 2023, Grayscale never increased its holdings of any token, but since the beginning of this year, it has been increasing its holdings of SOL, BCH, LTC, MANA, LINK, FIL and other coins, indicating that it is quite optimistic about the future market. Even this old fox Grayscale is increasing its holdings. Guess if there is still bullishness.
According to past rules, it will take 1-3 months of fluctuations before a complete breakthrough is possible. In addition, this round of market is moving faster and more urgent than ever before, so we must not be anxious. The longer the consolidation lasts, the greater the opportunity it gives us!
The interest rate cut is expected in the second half of the year. Although the Federal Reserve has released signals that it will raise interest rates, a rate cut is inevitable anyway. It is just a matter of sooner or later. In this case, there is nothing to worry about. It is just a matter of sooner or later.
The market is currently in the adjustment period after the first stage. The second stage has not officially started yet and is still gathering strength. Don’t be washed out of your chips. On the contrary, the harder it falls, the greater the opportunity. Think back to why you haven’t made money after several rounds of bull markets? Isn’t it because you worried, hesitated, and missed opportunities on the eve of the bull market, and then everyone knew that the big bull market was coming, but you chased high prices crazily!
What results will the ETH spot ETF usher in in May?
In the past two days, many opinions tend to be that the Ethereum ETF is going to be passed! Buy the dips of ETH, ETF reverses BTC, buy the dips of Ethereum assets, and "earn money together".
May is very important. According to current information, the SEC will indeed make approval decisions on multiple ETH spot ETF applications by the end of May, including VanEck, Ark 21 Shares and Hashdex. The earliest specific date is May 23.
Hong Kong has officially approved the ETH spot ETF, and the United States is not far behind.
In fact, there is an interesting indicator, which is the discount rate of Grayscale's ETH Trust. As can be seen from the figure below, this discount rate has not only not increased recently, but has fallen instead.
This shows to some extent that at least the funds are not optimistic about Grayscale's Ethereum spot ETF. There are only a few days left in May. If there is any gossip, the well-informed Wall Street tycoons will have to "start performing".
Recently, Standard Chartered Bank stated in a report that the spot Ethereum ETF is unlikely to be approved by US regulators in May. At the same time, they reiterated that the price target for Bitcoin by the end of the year is $150,000 and the target for Ethereum is $8,000.
An interesting point may be that the current mainstream opinion does not support the approval of the ETH spot ETF in May (I can’t accept it either), but this does not affect everyone’s belief that ETH will have a good market performance in May. Where there is heat, there is hype!
Optimism is not a bad thing because we are in a bull market!
