BTCdayu: Talking about memes and VC coins, will there still be a copycat season?

Talking about memes and VC coins, will there still be a copycat season? 1. Who are the people in the crypto? Currently, if we stratify the people in the crypto, 95% are speculators who are here to make money - the degree of intensity may vary. We can even break it down further and find that a very high proportion of these 95% come here to make quick money and big money - that is, "I come to the crypto to turn my fortune around, not to double it." This is very different from the stock market. Understanding this difference means understanding the underlying logic of the crypto, and understanding that no matter how good a coin is, if it suddenly stops rising in value, people will leave it - no matter what coin it is. 2. Why are memes popular? Meme coins are simple and easier to release. Basically, everyone gambles directly in a relatively fair environment. Its greatest value is actually "Buy me, I might be able to increase 100x." If all speculative activities are like betting in a casino, meme is just one of the gambling tables. This gambling table must remain relatively fair and transparent. All the rules revolve around pulling up and smashing the market. People must accept the consequences if they lose. There is a high tolerance for memes that return to zero or ruggedness. On the meme gambling table, the dealer or the community only needs to find a way to present some unique narratives and some essential things, such as fairness, structure, art, culture, etc. As long as a certain point can touch people's hearts, the gambling can begin. Now, let’s change the perspective. Altcoin are also memes, but they tell stories in different ways. Let’s look at a few classic cases: $dot The protagonist at the center of the last bull market, his story is that eth2.0, created by the author of the Ethereum yellow paper, is much more advanced and will kill eth in seconds. Its valuation is directly comparable to or exceeds eth. Combined with short-term operations such as parallel chain auctions that lock up a large number of chips and attract attention, it has reached a market value of tens of billions in the bull market. How much of this narrative is true? We couldn't see it then, but we can now. It's all bullshit. There are only two differences between this coin and meme coin: First, the stories are different. Meme tells stories about frogs, dealers, culture, etc., while dot tells stories about ETH killers, the author of the ETH yellow paper, the upgraded version of blockchain and the future. Just because the stories are different, you may say that the development cost of dot is completely different from that of pepe, and how many developers and engineers are behind it. But please note that these differences may only serve the story. Second, the shippers are different. The shippers of dot include the team, investors (hundreds of times online), market makers, and node big holders. Meme is completely different. For example, in the meme bome on sol, all chips are distributed by paying money. Even if the dealer wants to hold the currency, he must first pay sol. The paid sol does not go into his pocket, but directly into the pool. This means that although the dealer will have more chips, after the pool is added, everyone starts from the same starting line. If you don’t want to play, you go to smash the market. If you want to play, you buy, and the casino begins - there are no hidden shippers, and there is no additional issuance mechanism like dot, which gives you a huge amount of tokens every year. Next, let's look at another case $Arb, arb is the best project among all L2 projects, and the user experience of the project is very good. So let's analyze it from the perspective of meme: First, the story it tells: the leader of L2, the future ecological explosion, etc. The second group is the sellers: early investors, ecological projects (supported by ARB), and large airdrop recipients. Arb does not seem to have increased, but in fact fdv has increased a lot, that is, retail investors are taking over while large investors are selling, thus maintaining a balance. In fact, if you think about it carefully, almost all projects are like this, with the few exceptions being ETH and bnb ETH has formed its own closed business loop: massive usage, large amounts of fee income, a deflationary economic model, and long chip turnover. It’s done. BNB is a complete business closed loop of Binance: more users, more transaction fees, more good projects, better BNB demand, higher BNB holder loyalty - more users. 3. It is difficult to close the loop of VC coins In fact, there is a big difference between VC coins and memes in essence, which is the main reason why this industry cannot have only meme coins. That is, VC coins are born to expand and solve some problems. Without their efforts, we are still speculating on LTC and ETC. So, you can choose not to play, but never despise them. On the contrary, the more you understand them, the more you will respect them. Meme is a liberal arts subject, full of romance, romance and extravagance. Value currency is science, which is boring, hardcore and requires expertise in calculations. But none of them can be missing. Without memes, there is no traffic, and without traffic, there is no future; without valuable coins, there is no future, and without a future, memes will die. Therefore, the most important closed loop of VC is whether its commercial value can be closed. That is, for example, if a project is valued at 20 billion, can it create matching value, continue to grow, and even form a moat? The logic of coin holders hyping memes and hyping value coins is different. When hyping value coins, it is better to ask, what are the benefits for me as a holder? ETH's adoption of a deflationary model has answered this question to a certain extent. If you look at it from the perspective of commercial value, you will find many slogans ridiculous and self-defeating: for example, a certain public chain has a market value of tens of billions, an ecosystem consisting of only a few cats and dogs, and it still tries to trick you into thinking how big the ecosystem will be in the future. In fact, you only need to look at it from a few aspects: First, it’s the story he tells. How much do you believe it and how many people will believe it? This is the source of buying and the judgment of when to leave the market. Second, who are the sellers? How many are there? How much do they cost? If 90% of the coins are sold at low cost, and you want the price to increase 10 times, then you need hundreds of billions to buy it? If you and your group friends don't have that much money, then be careful. Of course, I didn’t name any of them here, so I might get criticized - but don’t mind it, there are more than just this one, there are projects like this on the market. For example, in the hot re-staking track, eigenlayer is about to issue a coin. This is the core and leader of the re-staking track. The story it tells is also very big, but after the coin is issued, people will be concerned about the value it creates, how high the market value can be supported, and who will distribute the chips? Many questions are terrifying to think about. Finally, four words suddenly came to my mind: “It’s rare to be confused.” Those who can make a lot of money in this circle must be sober enough and have a deep understanding on the one hand; on the other hand, they must also learn to participate in bubbles and illusions, and "be confused and forgetful".