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ShengMo.eth
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🟧🟧🟧#Rune #BRC20 1 $sats = 1 sats; 1 Satoshi = 1 BTC, Crypto since 2013, crypto mining. #BAYC775. http://NFTDesk.com | http://TheCoinDesk.com
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ShengMo.eth
23 minutes ago
From the miner's perspective, this is not too bad, still reluctant to survive, but this reluctance means that miners continue to sell most of the Bitcoin they mine to cover costs, even though the during the rainy season in the Northern Hemisphere. - Mining output has decreased by half, but every day miners still download about 450 BTC, most Mining Rig are still the old technology of last season, they will have to sell about 50% of the BTC they mine to pay. electricity, excluding machinery depreciation and reinvestment costs. (They will sell a minimum of 1/2 of 54k BTC in the next 120 days if Bitcoin price maintains at current levels). - If Bitcoin drops another $10k, miners will likely have to sell 70% of daily mining output. If Bitcoin drops another $20k, they may have to sell up to 90% of daily mining output and some mining pools will of course be affected. bankrupt forced to sell the Bitcoin they had accumulated before halving. From a conspiracy theory perspective, if big boys want to buy Bitcoin from miners, they will have to maintain low prices throughout this rainy season. The sign of a stretched market is that the Bitcoin diff continues to increase continuously throughout the rainy season. Bitcoin price decline. Then the weak mining pool will be purged at the beginning of the dry season before Bitcoin increases strongly. 👉Miners belong to the diamond hand group, but they have costs, compared to previous seasons, after the halving is the part where miners are forced to sell if the price drops sharply. -> That is the basis for you to buy cheap, not cut losses like miners.
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ShengMo.eth
2 days ago
What's the trend next season? - layer2, reStaking, gamefi, depin, bitcoin layer2, rwa, meme, socialfi, metaverse, Ai, modular, DA, rune… Which cash flow channel can selling vegetables join? - meme, reStaking, gamefi, depin, socialfi Why is it called halfway uphill? - If we count from the Dip , from the beginning of 2023, and if we calculate the crypto cycle as 4 years, we can XEM it as having 2 years up and 2 years down. So we've been going up for more than a year now. Why can this section be called a large volume? - Because those who are satisfied with profits have appeared, those who burned out a few days ago also appeared, those who are determined to sell their house to get back in may appear soon, those who sell coins to pay off debt seem to appear. This part has a high volume and hardly has to be strained for too long. Why is it the first quarter of 2025? - Returning to the 3rd bullet point, if we assume a 4-year cycle, then in the first quarter of 2025, the crypto will go through 1/2 of the cycle and it will probably have to peak, before that the market may appear to be the basis for hype. to exit large vol and return to tradition Will the market bear a long period of bearishness after this season? - Crypto is closer to tradition, it already has a definition of real yield, which means that bears still have Bull segments (perp dex, rwa, depin,...) so it's not necessarily bearish on the whole market. Should tradition be overridden? - If the first Fed interest rate cut is September 2024, about 6 months later it will take effect, the general economy can recover, at that time maybe stocks will be more attractive than bitcoin. => Personal note, so you should choose the appropriate area and also write out a plan for yourself.
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ShengMo.eth
04-28
- Young and old magicians are said to "rush" to buy gold. This is said to be a market accounting for 1/5 of global Volume . Even the genZ group broke out very noisy discussions about gold. Particularly in the first quarter of 2024, China's gold consumption reached 309 tons, an increase of 5.94% over the same period last year, jewelry consumption decreased by 3%, gold pieces increased by 26%. - Comments say that due to shelter needs, crypto is blocked, stocks are bad, real estate is frozen, the job market is gloomy, only the gold investment segment is profitable. - Another idea is that tensions between China and Taiwan are still being pushed up, geopolitical risks seem to only increase, not ease. This is also a reason why the demand for gold for shelter increases. => In China, in the eyes of young people, gold is definitely still a much better shelter than Bitcoin. => The USD is expensive but gold is increasing, clearly showing that the need for shelter occurs not only in one economy but across different economies. Gold is predicted by many experts to rise to $3.5k 😬 A world that loves shelter too much is in a period of economic weakness.
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ShengMo.eth
04-28
- A few months ago, real estate transactions in Shenzhen were only about 1k apartments per month, almost frozen. Last month, transactions soared to 5k apartments, the market showed signs of Dip out. - Startup businesses invest a lot in AI, but they all complain that it costs Capital and is not profitable. - Dong Quang, an Capital bustling industrial city, when I wandered there, more than 3 out of 10 stores closed. In general, foreign-origin business groups withdrew from this city, causing it to completely decline. - Livestreaming and selling at the factory reduces intermediaries. The group that earns money in this stage is not the factory or the livetream group but the platform group. - The drinking and dining industry is not only in decline in Vietnam, but also in China has suffered a serious decline. => While waiting for the crypto market to trend, we still have to look for opportunities in traditional markets.
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ShengMo.eth
04-23
Thread
Everyone's perspective on game theory will be different. Some people will think that it is a negative game, some people will think that it is a negative game, some people will think that it is a positive game. - For example, Bitcoin used to be considered a negative game by almost everyone, but recently it has begun to be evaluated as a positive game. That is the basis on which funds join to invest in Bitcoin or pension funds join to mine Bitcoin. -> With the positive game, whether you enter early or late, you will benefit at this level or that level, meaning you can still return to shore 5 or 10 years later. But with a Stone Age perspective, they probably still think it's not a game. - Most of the projects that have ponzi or meme properties, I think they are empty games, non-games are usually games that people pre-determine will eventually return to the motherland, whether fast or slow. The game does not include projects from previous seasons to next seasons that will no longer run after a few years. The group seems to be a positive game, but if it is overvalued, it is still XEM a bad game because sooner or later it will fall miserably and not have much left. -> With zero games, whoever is good or whoever arrives first will have a better chance of winning. - With negative games, it's quite complicated. If you understand little about the future and go to futu consulting and use high leverage, your earnings are only a little bit compared to your friends' losses, that's a negative game. Most call futures I still think are negative call games. Or if you hate someone, you just hate it. If you spend money to destroy that person, it's also a negative game.
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