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小人物
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小人物
11-14
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"Make sure you're fully buffed when the bull market returns" Everyone's saying it's time to lie low and rest when the bear market comes. But you also need to consider whether your model can compete with fully equipped players when the bull market returns. Those who survive long and thrive in this industry have basically found their own profitable model. Experts achieve long-term positive EV based on their strengths, without exception. For individuals, the most important question to consider is: how to find a track with a long, deep slope? My judgment method is: the track must have a high ceiling and be able to accumulate and compound. If a track has a low ceiling, even if you become number one, you won't make much money; if a track cannot compound, every trade is a fresh start, which will be exhausting and make you question your existence. Oil trading, IPO arbitrage, news trading, managing a Twitter account—these are all tracks with high individual ceilings and compounding potential. In a bull market, you're pushed along by various opportunities, leaving no time to refine your skills. Only in a bear market can you calmly review your performance, identify good profitable models, learn from experts, and hone your own arbitrage arbitrage skills. Otherwise, you'll find that in the next bull market, you still won't make the money you were supposed to make, and you'll still lose the money you were supposed to lose. One particularly fair aspect of a bear market is that it gives everyone the opportunity to understand themselves and to overtake others. Accumulate in the bear market, cash out in the bull market. We only need to ensure one thing: when the bull market returns, we'll be fully equipped with resources.
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小人物
11-13
"Earning Money and Withdrawing It: The Beginning to Understanding the Market" I chatted with Brother Hao (@leechan1688) a couple of days ago, and he changed a view I had held for a long time: you must keep withdrawing funds. I didn't get it for the past two years, but now I completely agree. His premise is simple—treat the crypto like a casino, and you're just a player; don't put too many chips on the table. Every time you win a big pot, take most of it out first. Anyone who plays Texas Hold'em knows that the level of blinds you are best suited to determines whether you can consistently perform at your best. If you're used to 100/200 and suddenly jump to 400/800, you'll find the game level is different. Most of the techniques you practiced become ineffective, leaving only fear. In the crypto, you don't need to manually switch tables, but the scale of your bets can be magnified instantly. You are unaware of the risks, and your bets can grow larger without you even realizing it. Maintaining withdrawals has two major advantages: One key is maintaining a stable mindset, which helps avoid getting carried away. Even the best poker players will make drastic changes when they get carried away; if you have too many chips in front of you, you're bound to want to bet more when an opportunity arises. Looking back at my biggest losses, they were all made when I was carried away. Another key is maintaining trading sensitivity. When the amount of chips on the table makes you feel comfortable and willing to bet, you'll be more likely to continue learning, reviewing past trades, and improving your judgment—this is also the fastest way to grow. On the other hand, the principles are simple, but putting them into practice is extremely difficult: people always overestimate their ability to manage large sums of money, while underestimating their own greed and fear. Those who can consistently withdraw funds have often grasped the essence of the industry and truly understood themselves.
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