In fact, all trading decisions come from the repeated recognition of experience;
When you decide to enter the market at a certain position, it must be because you see a familiar sign or structure, which is similar to a successful transaction in your brain database. Only in this way will you decide to open a position;
The reason why many people trade based on indicators such as RSI, MACD, and BOLL is essentially because these indicators have provided a large number of repeated reference sample cases in history and have statistically significant rules;
A few simple questions:
1. A bull market will appear within a year after BTC halving. Is it considered a repeated recognition of experience?
2. The Fed's interest rate cut to 1% and the start of the balance sheet expansion will usher in a bull market. Is it considered a carving?
3. The RSI indicator is oversold continuously, and the price is likely to stop falling and rebound. Is it considered a carving?
If the conclusions of the above questions can be regarded as a case of looking for a sword on a boat, then in theory all the trading decisions we make are based on experience-based behavior like this;
Since all decisions need the support of experience or historical data rules, then looking for a sword on a boat is not only not a wrong behavior in the market, but a necessary behavior;
So I think as long as you can find the rules under strong correlation, then it is a good case of looking for a sword on a boat, otherwise it is a far-fetched probability relationship, which is sometimes effective and sometimes ineffective;
What do you think?
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