Is the "Spring Festival rally" we started discussing in early February coming to an end? Today marks a major reversal for the market, the first time since the outbreak of the war that negotiations have truly begun. Of course, this doesn't mean things will be smooth sailing from here on out. As we discussed this morning, Iran's conditions are still very demanding, and there are several conditions that Trump will find difficult to accept. There will likely be further back and forth. These back-and-forth negotiations may be the time when the market panics again, but that shouldn't be the time for us to panic; it should be the time to buy on dips.
We previously discussed x.com/qinbafrank/status/203628...…，以打促谈、有条件媾合是大概率的。之前是认为以打促谈近期还会有一次升级，现在看双方都在悬崖变勒马，只是谈判中间还会有波折。
There's also an implicit time constraint here: the 60-day time limit for US foreign military operations stems from the War Powers Act of 1973, allowing the president to make decisions within 60 days. Beyond 60 days, congressional authorization is required. In the current situation, not only Democrats but also many Republicans oppose such actions, making a simple majority unlikely to pass. Therefore, the market will see this as time goes on, and the impact of the war itself on the market will diminish.
Last Friday here | _2024111120231_ |
1) A 60-day time limit for foreign war;
2) Mid-to-late April is the Q1 earnings season for US stocks. The most important aspect of this season is verifying whether the booming AI agent craze in Q1 can drive a surge in big tech cloud businesses, since computing power equals revenue. If it can, market skepticism towards AI may turn into validation, and the situation will be different.
3) For US stocks, fundamentals remain paramount. Once individual stocks have experienced significant declines and entered a high-value range, it's acceptable to build positions regardless of the overall market trend. We actually started gradually buying last week.
4) I bought some BTC around 60,000 in early February and am hoping for another good opportunity. The US tax season in mid-April will likely tighten liquidity, potentially creating another good opportunity.
Favorable US stock sectors
1) I am very optimistic about the conceptual links in the AI semiconductor industry chain, such as storage and optical modules. These are the sectors that I started investing in last November and December and have held without reducing my holdings.
Any other bottlenecks in the computing power chain deserve attention;
2) The valuations of big tech stocks have fallen to a reasonable level, making them attractive value. Previous posts about the capital expenditure war discussed how changes in the business models of big tech companies have led to a downward shift in valuation levels, but this doesn't mean we're completely pessimistic. As long as valuations come down, they still offer good value.
3) I am optimistic about the space economy. This year, SpaceX's IPO and lunar landing will drive a wave of growth, as I have discussed in previous posts.
4) Crypto-related stock sectors: Hood, Coin, Circle, etc.;
We may stop talking about the "Spring Festival rally" from now on. This doesn't mean the market has reversed, but rather that we can pay more attention to the fundamentals of individual stocks. The ongoing situation in Iran will still have an impact on the market, but it will no longer be the only main theme.
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