Odaily星球日报讯 据路透调查，101 位经济学家中有 55 位预计美联储将在今年将联邦基金利率下调 75 个基点（7 月份预计 50 个基点），受调查经济学家预计美国 2024 年和 2025 年的平均经济增长率分别为 2.5%和 1.8%。（金十）

路透调查：超50%经济学家预计美联储今年会将联邦基金利率下调75个基点

According to a Reuters Odaily, 55 of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points this year (50 basis points were expected in July), and the economists surveyed expect the average economic growth rate of the United States in 2024 and 2025 to be 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. (Jinshi)

Reuters poll: More than 50% of economists expect the Fed to cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points this year

PGIM's Chief U.S. Economist Tom Porcelli stated that the current 5.3% federal funds rate appears relatively high compared to the current consumer price inflation rate of less than 3%. Even if the rate is cut by 100 basis points, the Federal Reserve's policy would still be relatively tight. The policy is calibrated based on significantly higher inflation rates and significantly lower unemployment rates, but these conditions have already changed. (Jinshi)

Economist Tom Porcelli: Even with a 100 basis point rate cut, the Fed's policy is still tight

Odaily reports that according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 75%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has dropped to 25%.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has dropped to 25%

Odaily reports that Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in several consecutive meetings. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will outline the Fed's medium-term strategy, particularly that the persistent anti-inflation stance means the Fed can focus on maintaining economic expansion. Powell may point out that even after the rate cuts, policy will still be tight.