Odaily星球日报讯 CME 美联储观察数据显示，截至文时美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点、50 个基点的概率同为 50%。而一天前美联储 9 月降息 50 个基点概率仅为 28%。

美联储9月降息50个基点的概率增至50%

Odaily Odaily News CME Fed Observation data shows that as of the time of writing, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points in September is 50%. One day ago, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September was only 28%.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has increased to 50%.

Elmar Voelker, a senior fixed income analyst at LBBW (Baden-Württemberg Bank), said in a report that the new interest rate expectations, or dot plot, to be announced by the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week, are unlikely to be in sync with the currently heated rate cut expectations. He stated: "It seems at least doubtful whether the forecast adjustments can keep up with market expectations." This also applies to the 2025 forecast. Voelker said the dot plot could become a "potential stumbling block for rising bond prices." The market is speculating that the Federal Reserve may make a significant 50-basis-point rate cut next week, but the bank's recent forecast only suggests a 25-basis-point rate cut this year. (Jinshi)

Institution: The Fed's dot plot may test the market's optimistic sentiment towards rate cuts

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Amid widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its policy meeting next week, Brian Martin, head of G3 economics at ANZ, said he expects the Fed to cut rates by 200 basis points in the upcoming easing cycle. He said the potential financial and economic conditions in the United States do not suggest the easing cycle will start in a more forceful manner. However, he added that a more rapid easing would be reasonable if there is a substantial deterioration in the labor market conditions. ANZ expects the FOMC's projections for 2024 and 2025 to be revised lower, as the committee members anticipate the need for further rate cuts during this period.

ANZ Bank: The Fed will cut interest rates by 200 basis points in this round of easing cycle

According to the ChainCatcher news report, based on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) Federal Reserve observation tool, the bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next week has risen from 28% yesterday to 43%, and the yield on US Treasuries is expected to record a weekly decline. The CPI and PPI data released this week supported the expectation of a moderate performance of the PCE data at the end of this month, causing some investors to expect the Federal Reserve to be more concerned about employment issues. At the same time, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials are considering more aggressive monetary easing policies, as they believe inflation has been brought under control and are concerned about employment issues. The 10-year US Treasury bond is trading around 3.657%, and the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.598%.