Original | Liu Jiaolian
After waking up overnight, BTC returned to $60,000. Standing firmly in the East. After testing 52.5k again on September 7, it soared +15% in just one week. I don’t know how many times the short position was blown up, but I can be sure that those who hold full positions must have earned all the gains.
The secret to winning in investment is to make every action or inaction increase your certainty of winning and reduce uncertainty. The higher the certainty of winning, the higher the probability of winning in the end.
Jiaolian is never afraid of the short sellers’ dominance. Because Jiaolian is confident that all short sellers are doomed to fail in front of Jiaolian’s strategy. Jiaolian’s strategy has a 100% winning rate against short sellers.
Jiaolian never gives up a single chip it has obtained. Even if it is 1 satoshi (1/100 million of BTC), it will be tightly held and never let it slip through fingers. After the short sellers sell, they either get out or buy back the chips to continue playing, or even buy back more. Therefore, BTC will inevitably return to the level before the short sellers smashed the market, and it will be higher. The short sellers will lose, because getting out is a loss, and the chips are more expensive and they will also lose if they take over at a high position.
Recently, inflation in the US has eased, unemployment has risen, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates even more sharply has increased. Therefore, [“9.13 Teaching Chain Insider: The probability of radical interest rate cuts has increased greatly, and gold has soared”].
The shocking rise of gold is a foregone conclusion, because the ten-year box of 1,000-2,000 US dollars x 2012-2023 has achieved a decisive right-side breakthrough this year.
Once a trend is established, it will not be easily reversed.
Does the U-shaped box of gold in the picture above look familiar? Does it look a bit similar to the 5-year box of BTC 20,000-70,000 USD x 2021-2024 in the picture below?
Now the only thing we need to hope for is that BTC will keep up with the pace of gold and make a decisive right-side breakthrough at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025.
This breakthrough will be long-lasting and earth-shattering!
Why? Because this right-side breakthrough brings together the power of two cycles.
Recently, an article by an overseas analyst has been circulated online, claiming that the four-year halving cycle of BTC no longer exists. Jiaolian has dismantled and refuted it in [“9.4 Jiaolian Internal Reference: Has the BTC halving effect really disappeared?”].
The reason why many people feel this way is actually because BTC is accelerating. Just like the clock slowing effect in the special theory of relativity, when a spacecraft accelerates, its clock will become slower and slower in the eyes of us earthlings.
Please note that the halving of BTC production is anchored to the block height. The block height is determined by the block speed. The block speed is constrained by the dynamically adjusted difficulty, which is anchored to the reference system and world line of the real world we live in.
Let's use music as an analogy. BTC block generation is like the beats we make when we sing. For example, a song with a 4/4 beat means that we sing a measure with 4 beats, and each beat is a quarter note, or two eighth notes, and so on. We let this group of singers go on an interstellar journey and call them the "singer civilization" (it seems there is such a civilization in "The Three-Body Problem").
Now, the singer civilization accelerates to nearly the speed of light. Assuming that the relativistic effect causes their clock to be just twice as slow as the clock on our Earth's world line, then, when they sing a quarter note, it sounds like a half note to us. A song with a 4/4 beat sounds like a 4/2 beat to us.
"I will sing a song, an old song. I will sing slowly and you will sing along slowly."
Suppose the Singer Civilization is singing, and we on Earth are listening and clapping. We still clap according to the length of the quarter note marked on the score. Then we on Earth will find that we need to clap 8 beats instead of 4 beats to correspond to the Earth time of one measure sung by the Singer Civilization.
That is to say, if we still beat the rhythm of quarter notes on Earth, after beating four beats, the singer civilization would have only sung half a measure.
Well, BTC is the singer civilization in this story, and we are the Earth civilization. The block generation of BTC is in accordance with the rhythm of the world line of our Earth civilization, thus serving as a bridge to communicate between the two civilizations.
At first, every 210,000 beats, BTC production was halved. This corresponds to about 4 years on the Earth world line. The corresponding Singer world line is a "growth cycle". (The term "bull-bear cycle" is not used to avoid confusion with the "4-year bull-bear cycle" of the Earth world line)
Later, the Singer civilization sped up, and the clock slowing effect occurred.
Still, every 210,000 beats, BTC production is halved. This corresponds to about 4 years on the Earth world line. The corresponding singer world line has just gone through half a growth cycle.
In other words, 420,000 beats are needed, and BTC production is halved twice, which corresponds to about 8 years on the Earth world line, for the Singer world line to complete the same "growth cycle".
The clock (time) of the world line where the Singer civilization exists has slowed down.
There is a famous "twin paradox" in physics. It says that there are twins. The elder brother travels with the Singer civilization in the stars, while the younger brother stays on Earth waiting for his brother to come home. 80 years later, the younger brother has become old and frail. The elder brother who returns to Earth is still young.
"May you travel for half your life, and still be a young man when you return."
As a human living on the Earth worldline, you never have to worry about BTC aging earlier than you. Your aging speed must be much faster than BTC. Holders age quickly, but BTC stays young forever.
There is a joking saying that men's aesthetic tastes are extremely stable. When they are 20, they like 18-year-olds, and when they are 80, they still like 18-year-olds.
BTC is like an 18-year-old singing and civilized girl to its holders. She accompanies the holders from 20 to 80 years old, but her beauty remains forever and you will never get tired of her and want to leave her.
The forever 18-year-old singer and civilized girl will accompany you throughout your life.
I don’t know whether the singer civilization in Liu Cixin’s mind is “immortal”, but the singer civilization that I envision should be roughly like that.
"One day in heaven is one year on earth."
In the wisdom of the ancient Chinese people reflected in Journey to the West, the Heavenly Palace is like the immortal and eternally youthful civilization of singers.
From this perspective, BTC is like a divine object from heaven.
"This thing should only exist in heaven, how often can we hear about it in the world?"
When the Singer civilization accelerated, ordinary people on earth exclaimed that the four-year halving cycle no longer existed, but they did not know that it was just the slow clock effect that manifested, the growth cycle was extended, and the number of beats that the singers of Earth civilization needed to beat increased.
(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and there is a risk of it returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for your own actions.)
