Today's article is purely a casual reflection of my own. It was inspired by a piece of news about Tesla's latest developments that reminded me of some changes in my thinking about U.S. stocks over the past few months.
It is both a summary of my past thoughts and a summary of my studies during this period.
I have talked about my previous experience with stock investment in an earlier article. When I mentioned U.S. stocks, I shared the following thoughts:
- I don’t like US stocks very much because they have short bear markets and long bull markets. Under this circumstance, I don’t have enough time to accumulate chips in a bear market, which results in me not daring to buy them once the price goes up;
- When investing in the stock market (whether US stocks or A shares), I don’t touch individual stocks, I only invest in indexes.
However, in the past six months, after reading the books of Buffett and Fisher, I learned that at least in the past 100 years, the experience and history of the two predecessors have shown that:
(In Fisher's words) as long as American society always believes that capitalist free economy can create miracles or (in Buffett's words) as long as the United States always adheres to market economy and the rule of law, then American companies will continue to create miracles and wealth.
In the past 100 years, with the development of science and technology and the advancement of industry, human society has successively produced the oil industry, steel industry, automobile industry, chemical industry, pharmaceutical industry, biological industry, electronics industry, semiconductor industry, software industry, Internet industry, chip industry, artificial intelligence industry...
In all these industries, there are American technology companies and miracles created by American industrial giants.
Moreover, based on the two old gentlemen's investment experience over the past 100 years, the United States has emerged from the trough after every economic recession, and the excellent companies have subsequently set new highs again.
The above experiences and history are the fundamental reasons why the two old gentlemen dare to ignore short-term fluctuations, ignore economic recessions, and even ignore emergencies, always believe in tomorrow, and always focus on selecting excellent companies.
Therefore, I believe that as long as the market economy and the legal system remain in place in the future, American companies will once again create miracles and wealth.
From this perspective, from a medium to long-term perspective, if you buy the US stock index, although it will experience various twists and turns and ups and downs (even violent fluctuations) along the way, it will eventually break through the previous high and move upward again.
Therefore, my previous idea that "once the U.S. stock index goes up, you dare not buy it" can be adjusted. As long as you don't buy it during a period when the bubble is too serious, the long-term risk of buying the U.S. stock index is still quite controllable.
In addition, if you can spend some time to find excellent American companies, avoid the bubble period like the two old gentlemen, and buy at a relatively reasonable price at a relatively low level, the risk of medium- and long-term investment in individual U.S. stocks can be relatively controllable.
So I decided to try to break the past practice of not considering individual stocks and try to select some US stocks that I am optimistic about.
Since you want to choose individual stocks, you must choose an industry that you are familiar with and understand.
In terms of my personal cognitive ability and knowledge background, among the many industries in the United States, I may have a little understanding of information technology.
In today's information industry in the United States, AI is undoubtedly the most dazzling, exciting, and most promising industry in the centralized world in the next few decades.
Therefore, I decided to try to find some AI-related technology stocks in the United States that I thought had potential.
