BTC: The 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, and the daily level is above the healthy level. Focus on the resistance zone above 68,000 during the day. Those with positions should hold. The long-term outlook has not weakened. The support level during the day is 66,800-67,300, and the resistance level is 68,500-69,000.
BTC rose slightly yesterday, briefly breaking through 68,000, and the daily level remains healthy. The weekly level has formed a golden cross, so maintain your position and be confident. The outlook remains bullish. ETH also rose in sync with BTC yesterday, but the increase was not as much as BTC. It briefly broke through 2,500. Wait patiently for BTC to stabilize, and then ETH will follow up with a rebound. The 4-hour momentum has started to weaken, and a divergence pattern has formed. Those who have built positions should hold, and the outlook remains bullish, with the target range unchanged at 2,800-3,000.
The altcoins have not followed the mainstream in the upward trend. Be patient and continue to hold SATS, and consider clearing the position around 50. For PEOPLE, hold it in the medium term and wait. Maintain the position in FTM.
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How will the market trend be?
The market can only break out of the 65,000-70,000 USD range to establish a new trend, but I cannot predict it at the moment because the market is highly divided. Next week, there will be the November 5th election and the November 6th election results. The market will definitely react to this, which may be an opportunity to end the consolidation.
Although I subjectively believe that Trump has a good chance of winning, which is a long-term positive for Bitcoin, the short-term market reaction is still unknown. Moreover, after Trump takes office, how many measures can be taken to rescue the economic recession and the ever-increasing government debt is a confusing issue. Going left is a knife mountain (high unemployment rate), and going right is a sea of fire (high inflation).
Of course, these are too complex issues for us to understand deeply. Regardless of who takes office in the future and how the economy develops, we only need to focus on inflation and the unemployment rate, as well as the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and then act accordingly.
Recently, the on-chain meme market has been booming, and my focus has shifted from the secondary market to the on-chain market. The secondary market and the on-chain market are completely different fields, both with their own advantages and problems, and different cycles. There is no need to look down on each other.
If BTC breaks out of the consolidation, the secondary market will have more certainty, and there will be more opportunities with large capital capacity. But if Bitcoin continues to consolidate, and the altcoin season does not come, there will be more opportunities on-chain, with occasional opportunities for getting rich quickly. However, it is also more bloody and cruel. Except for a few persistent targets, most of them are one-wave flows that disappear after a pump. During the process of playing on-chain memes, my thinking has also undergone a transformation: memes only look at the narrative, and the components of the narrative are:
1. The initiator
That is, the source. Who is the driving force behind this narrative? If Musk tells you he bought a coin, would you dare to go all-in? But if I tell you I bought a coin, would you dare to go all-in?
2. The connotation of the narrative
Is it high-brow or low-brow? The narrative of crowdfunding to buy the Constitution, is it not more connotative than a KOL telling you the name of his dog?
3. The audience of the narrative
Generally speaking, if your narrative can move the old money, the kind of people who don't care about profits or losses, then your narrative is top-tier. The general meme can only attract gamblers, and the top-tier meme can only attract true believers.
4. The consensus of the narrative
Take FIGHT as an example. The consensus of FIGHT is very good. You see a slogan being chanted, and we all FOMO'd. The consensus of FIGHT comes from the consensus of Trump supporters, and then it is transferred to the consensus of the coin.
5. The capital capacity of the narrative
The larger the narrative, the greater the capital capacity. This capital will not only be in this narrative, but will also spill over to the "imitation" of this narrative, such as Dogecoin. Dogecoin has many imitations, and many of them have succeeded.
This is also why I focus on the AI+MEME track? 1. Playing MEME is just a sentence, hyping concepts, and telling stories, right? Putting MEME aside, what is the narrative that the market loves the most? It's AI. No matter how much water the AI has, as long as it wears an AI coat, it becomes the darling of the market. 2. Some narratives may fade away quickly. I'll make a small prediction: the narrative of $Ban-type art NFT memes will be difficult to establish "stickiness" with retail investors and cannot give people a sense of vitality. Most likely, after the heat is over, the capital will still return to the zoo or MEME+AI. 3. The secondary track only has MEME and AI as version T0. This logic is also very imaginative in telling stories on-chain. Some narratives are only suitable for a one-night stand, and some narratives can even get married. Currently, the one that has been verified to be able to get married is the zoo, and the other one that looks the most promising in terms of imagination is MEME+AI.
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