In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Galaxy's CEO Mike Novogratz argued that the chances of a U.S. Bit Reserve passing are low. He said such a bill would push Bit prices to $500,000, but Novogratz believes that President Donald Trump will not get enough support in the Senate.
Polymarket's odds also assess the passage likelihood as very low, but are betting only on Trump achieving it immediately after taking office.
"There are too many obstacles for the federal government to buy Bit"
In a recent interview, Galaxy's CEO Mike Novogratz was pessimistic about the prospects of a U.S. Bit Reserve. Novogratz has repeatedly expressed high expectations for friendly regulations, but this campaign promise did not see a clear path. Simply put, there are too many obstacles between the federal government and regular Bit purchases.
"The odds are low. The Republicans control the Senate, but they are not close to 60 seats. It would be wise for the U.S. to utilize the Bit it holds and add a little more... I don't think it needs to be backed by the dollar," Novogratz argued.
To be clear, he emphasized that such a reserve would be beneficial for Bit, and predicted prices would soar to $500,000. However, Novogratz believes the current support is insufficient.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has bipartisan support, and some state-level representatives also back the bill. But the voices of these supporters are in the minority.
Completing such a broad policy requires more than just a few elected officials. For example, Novogratz recently argued on social media with the well-known Bit critic, Senator Elizabeth Warren.
While anti-crypto members of Congress have significantly weakened in the last election, they have not yet been defeated. Even Trump's own party may not be united in supporting this bill.
Polymarket odds agree with Novogratz's pessimistic forecast. This decentralized prediction market, which successfully predicted Trump's victory, claims the U.S. Bit Reserve has a 33% chance of materializing. However, the active betting is on whether Trump will fulfill the promise within his first 100 days, not his entire term.
Ultimately, the chances of Trump passing a Bit Reserve bill during his term are still quite high. Lummis' bill already has bipartisan support, and American voters are becoming increasingly crypto-friendly.
Several Democrats may cast affirmative votes, and there could be new pro-crypto victories in the midterm elections. Nevertheless, it may take some time.
