Author: Will, Metrics Ventures
At this time when is hitting new highs again, with the epic 6-month high consolidation period seemingly coming to an end, we believe it is necessary to share our views with you. As mentioned in our previous monthly report, 6 months have been enough to confirm the arrival of a trend that spans years, and this article is based on the observations of the industry made by the manager in the primary and secondary markets over the past 6 months, with a strong subjective component, and will attempt to guide our future crypto asset management thinking. The core idea of this article can be summarized in one sentence:
The asset property of has undergone a new qualitative change in the past 6 months, and the old and new main capital have synchronously completed the transfer of pricing power. A new capital pool that takes as the core asset, ETFs and US stocks as the capital inflow channel, and uses US-listed companies represented by MSTR as the carrier to infinitely absorb US dollar liquidity in a Ponzi model has officially started.
has become the most core US dollar asset outside of the US dollar industry cycle (such as AI) leaders, and the long-term low-volatility upward trend has basically taken shape.
However, the decoupling trend between the traditional digital currency market (Altcoins) and will continue to strengthen.
I. has completed the establishment of the fundamental turning point in consolidation
has found a clear definition of its own asset properties
This is something that everyone may have overlooked, but is particularly important in our view. This definition can be led by BlackRock, but requires the affirmation of the entire US dollar capital system to be established, which was something no one expected in the past. However, over the past 6 months, we have enough evidence to clearly state that:
is an alternative reserve asset that can hedge against US dollar debt risk and is outside the traditional financial framework.
This concise definition has provided the most important basis for to become the center of the future US dollar asset system. The problem of US debt has already become the elephant in the room and will be a core issue in the US fiscal and monetary system in the long run.
Against the backdrop of the current Trump administration, if the policy direction becomes more radical again, we may witness further significant fluctuations in US debt and the US dollar exchange rate in the next three years. We believe that the US debt issue is one of the biggest themes of the past 10 years in the context of the shrinking global influence of the US dollar.
More importantly, whether the above concept is accepted by the market is also the question we have been most concerned about in recent months. At this moment, faced with the unexpectedly large government of Trump, we have finally observed enough evidence that a sufficient number of giant Hedge Funds (1B+) founders have begun to publicly express their attitudes, including but not limited to Paul Tudor Jones, Verde Asset Management, Brevan Howard, Millennium Management, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors and other multi-billion dollar veteran Hedge Funds representing traditional old money, using as a hedging tool in their risk trades on US debt (especially in the recent election).
The new Ponzi model of has been established in the past 6 months
Since the approval of the ETF, the new Ponzi model led by BlackRock has taken shape, with this system being the creator and locker of the infinite buy-side, with BlackRock-controlled ETFs and Microstrategy, in which BlackRock is the second largest shareholder, as the core, with the overall low volatility and upward trend of as the core essence, using the stock price effect of MSTR to create the possibility of as a market capitalization management tool and open up the future passive buying of US stock ETFs, forming a Ponzi model that can achieve infinite self-reinforcement.
We believe that the above model will be established in the medium term (3-5 years) and be able to achieve long-term infinite circulation on the premise that:
1. The volatility of decreases;
2. US dollar liquidity can maintain the average growth rate since 2008;
3. The price of can grow annually, the proportion is not important.
And the following important facts have already occurred:
1. The volatility of has approached the historical low;
2. Excluding arbitrage factors, the total market value of held by ETFs (including GBTC) and Microstrategy has exceeded **$90 billion**. Its holdings correspond to the current daily average spot (including various ETFs) trading volume of the entire network (actually effective about **$100 billion** in the current bull market peak environment), has actually reached the so-called cornering threshold, and over the past 6 months, we have felt the further concentration of liquidity to CME and the New York Stock Exchange, which also corroborates the control of the above system over the current supply and demand;
3. BlackRock has and has the long-term ability to ensure the refinancing capability of MSTR's equity, continuously promoting MSTR to play the role of the ballast stone of volatility by utilizing short-term equity financing tools.
In summary, this perpetual motion machine is likely to become the best capital pool game in the next 2-3 years as US dollar liquidity easing is just beginning, and it is only a matter of time before the total value of held by the BlackRock system exceeds the holdings of gold ETFs.
Finally, a simple explanation of the turning point observation method of the above capital pool, mainly based on the reverse deduction of the core conditions mentioned above:
1. volatility, especially the downward volatility, begins to amplify;
2. There is a turning point in US dollar liquidity;
3. MSTR encounters difficulties in refinancing its equity, unable to complete the current planned $42 billion refinancing task in 3 years, and based on this logic, it is predicted that **the MSTR stock price will peak ahead of the price**.
II. The manager's outlook on the trend of in the next 5 years
Based on the above, the manager believes that the key points to grasp for the trend of in the next 5 years are:
1. The current is a real turning point in US dollar liquidity, and the right-wing US government led by the Republican Party will further ensure that US dollar liquidity will be more relaxed than previously expected;
2. From the current daily trading volume and MSTR stock price performance/market value, the current capital capacity is still in the early stage and is far from the turning point;
3. The on-chain chips are still flowing out like the tide under the first two premises, and the high-level consolidation over the past 6 months has actually completed an epic turnover of the old and new chips.
Therefore, we firmly believe that the new round of major asset cycle of is just beginning, and in terms of asset management, we will accompany you to enjoy the long-cycle low-volatility upward experience of the core US stock assets based on the above understanding and actual market trading signals.
