The crypto market sentiment has entered an extremely greedy period!
The Fear and Greed Index has soared to 90 this week, officially reaching an extremely greedy state.
Looking back over the past few years, there have been three times when it has reached 90 or even higher:
Late June 2019, late October 2020 to early February 2021, and early March 2024. The first and third times it soared to 90, it quickly turned downward, and the market also reversed quickly.
Only from October 2020 to the first quarter of 2021 did the Fear and Greed Index remain in an extremely greedy state of over 90, with the Greed Index reaching a high of 95.
The logic here is: A bear-to-bull market oscillation, an extremely greedy state is not sustainable. But in a bull market peak, an extremely greedy state can last a long time, until the sentiment is finally exhausted. Will this be similar to which of the previous cases?
BTC's trend is very healthy, don't always want a pullback when the trend is coming, the daily level has just started, which means that if it doesn't break $100k+, the market already has no desire to pull back. It is estimated that it will soon break through $100k+.
Some altcoins have also seen significant gains these two days, with Om leading the entire Rwa track to take off, and on the public chain level, HBAR, XTZ, etc. have also seen significant rallies.
Bull markets will rise, it's just a matter of how much.
When will the perennial second-place ETH rise?
When BTC was $40k, ETH was $3000, when BTC was $60k, ETH was still $3000, and now that BTC is $90k, ETH is still $3000. Fans often send private messages asking why I don't talk about ETH. Now that it's in such a slump, what's there to talk about? The reason ETH was strong in the last cycle was because both ICOs and DeFi required a lot of ETH, so it went from the lowest $80s in 2018 to nearly $5000 in the last cycle, but what does ETH have this cycle?
It was finally hard to get an ETF, but everyone rushed to BTC, and with SOL lurking nearby, I've said before that if I had to choose, at least for now, I would choose SOL.
So what about the second-place one? I have some personal views:
The ETF opening up staking, although the yield is not high, but for big finance it is also a great temptation, and in the future, as the yield on US Treasuries continues to decline, ETH staking will become more and more attractive.
Another is to wait for the capital to flow back into ETH, wait for its catch-up rally, but this is all a future thing, the main uptrend is also most likely in the middle and late stages, it's just that for those who currently hold it, waiting is a kind of torment, as for what to do now, we don't have to be too obsessed, at least for now this cycle still has a lot better options.
Although we can't see enough reasons for it to rise now, there is still hope for the future!
The bull market has different stages, and it is difficult for ordinary retail investors to capture the dividends of each stage:
For example, last year's Rune market, the AI DEPIN RWA market at the beginning of the year, the subsequent SOL, TON, SUI market, as well as the Pump MEME market that runs through the entire bull market, and the recent PVP market, I believe that most people can only grasp one or two opportunities.
Although your wealth may grow rapidly, the entire bull market process is long, and there will be all kinds of traps waiting for you in the middle.
For example, Dexx was busted over the weekend, and many friends' PVP gains instantly vanished. In the last cycle's Fb mining craze, many people All In'd the money they made from Rune and Rune into Fb, and the consequence was being harvested, but then BN mining pool added Fb to the BTC mining rewards, directly reviving Fb and making it double instantly.
The logic of this cycle's market is very chaotic, if you follow the path dependence, still use rational and data-driven thinking to explore valuable projects, then you probably have a bunch of junk VC coins in your hands, while the spooky MEME that you look down upon can bring you hundreds of times returns, like the cult coin leader Spx.
When you can accept that their practices are reasonable, then you truly understand how to play this bull market, simply summarized as following the trend, don't try to be a smartass!
Cherish the market action this month, this is what we call the Q4 market, I believe everyone has witnessed it.
