Over the past week, BTC has started to accelerate its rise, successively completing $93,000 and $94,000 ATH breakthroughs. Although the current BTC price has retreated slightly, it is still fluctuating around $93,400, with the 24-hour maximum increase of BTC exceeding 4.5% (the above data is from Binance spot, 5:00 pm on November 20).
Currently, BTC is the only investment category in Trump's economy that has not yet returned its gains. Due to the extremely high long positions and the market's concerns about the continued rise in yields, US stocks have given back some of their recent gains. Although geopolitical tensions have intensified recently, under the leadership of NVIDIA's upcoming earnings release and tech stocks, US stocks closed relatively flat on November 19, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 slightly up and the Dow Jones slightly down.
Against this backdrop, Trump's frequent personnel appointments, the possible slowdown in the pace of US interest rate cuts, the escalating geopolitical risks, and the enhanced market awareness of BTC have all appeared simultaneously, and the FOMO sentiment driven by the MEME market has reached its peak. Investors need to closely monitor market indicators and properly allocate assets while capturing returns, and pay attention to risk control.
Market Analysis
In addition to the continued escalation of geopolitics, Trump's personnel appointments may be an important turning point for the future of cryptocurrencies, whether it is the appointment of the Treasury Secretary or the subsequent personnel of the Federal Reserve, or the subsequent policies of the SEC, which will determine the fate of BTC's market adoption.
Geopolitical tensions, safe-haven assets are sought after by investors
On November 19 local time, the US Department of Defense announced that it will provide at least $250 million in weapons to Ukraine. The weapons in the aid plan include multiple rocket launcher systems, ammunition, Javelin anti-armor ammunition and other facilities and accessories.
Affected by this information, the US stock market entered a brief panic after the opening, and the panic index reached 17.93, the highest since November 5. Market analysts believe that the escalating geopolitical risks will be the risks that the market will face, and with the new president about to take office, the president's attitude will increase uncertainty.
Given the performance of the US economy, the Federal Reserve may adjust short-term rate cut expectations
On November 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that since the US economy is strong, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, and the Federal Reserve will carefully observe to ensure that certain inflation indicators remain within an acceptable range. Powell reiterated that the path of the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate will depend on the data to be released and the evolution of the economic outlook. He said that the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but has not yet reached it. The Federal Reserve will closely monitor the core indicators of commodity and service inflation excluding housing, which have been declining for the past two years. "We expect these indicators to continue to fluctuate in the near-term range, and the path to the Federal Reserve's 2% target may be bumpy at times. But we still believe we are on the right track in terms of inflation."
The next Federal Reserve meeting will be held from December 17 to 18.
Who will be the US Treasury Secretary? It is the focus of attention this week
The market is closely watching the cabinet layout under Trump's tenure. Currently, several key positions have become clear, and the focus is on who will be the Treasury Secretary. The current hot candidates are Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick (CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald). According to CNN information, Trump is expected to announce his Treasury Secretary pick early Wednesday local time.
Bessent is considered a "safe bet" with rich capital market experience, but Lutnick's company is one of the custodians of Tether, so it is of particular interest to the cryptocurrency community. The market generally believes that regardless of who joins the cabinet, the two candidates are seen as "supporting cryptocurrencies", and the cryptocurrency industry has the opportunity to continue to receive political support and promote the long-term development of BTC as a reserve asset.
Sources: Trump's team will list cryptocurrency lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén as a candidate for SEC chairman
According to a report citing informed sources, Trump's transition team is considering listing Teresa Goody Guillén, a partner at the law firm BakerHostetler and co-head of its blockchain team, as one of the candidates for the next SEC chairman. Goody Guillén is an experienced securities lawyer with experience serving the SEC and representing blockchain companies and traditional companies against the agency.
An insider in Washington said that Trump is looking for a non-bureaucratic person who supports cryptocurrencies to thoroughly reform the SEC. Unlike Trump's first term, the election process for the second term is rapid and orderly, and the SEC chairman is expected to be selected before Thanksgiving.
BlackRock's IBIT options listed on the first day with a total trading volume of nearly $1.9 billion, 82% of which were call options
According to data monitored by Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart, the final statistics for the first day of trading of BlackRock's IBIT options show that the notional exposure through 354,000 contracts was slightly less than $1.9 billion, of which 82% were call options (289,000 contracts) and 18% were put options (65,000 contracts), a ratio of 4.4:1.
Investment Recommendations
The current market is experiencing severe FOMO sentiment, and it is recommended that investors maintain rationality. Under the premise of ensuring sound risk control, properly allocate assets to capture returns while further avoiding risks.
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