Since Trump's victory in the US presidential election on November 8, Bitcoin has continued to surge towards the $100,000 mark, reaching a high of $99,500 on November 23, with an accumulated gain of 37.6% in nearly a month.
However, since last weekend, Bitcoin has seen the most significant pullback since Trump's election, sliding from around $99,000 to a low of $90,791 this morning, a correction of over 8.8% from the high of around $99,600 on November 22.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has slightly recovered, currently trading at $93,099, with a 24-hour decline narrowed to 1.78%.
LTH's daily realized profits reach a record high of $20 billion
Facing the surge in Bitcoin selling pressure, glassnode's latest
weekly report analyzes that since the peak of long-term holder (LTH) supply in September, these investors have now reduced their holdings by 507,000 BTC (currently worth about $46.64 billion). Although this is lower than the 934,000 BTC selling pressure during the March rebound, the scale is still significant.
Furthermore, long-term holders are currently distributing about 0.27% of their profit supply daily, a relatively high proportion, with only 177 trading days having a higher distribution rate, exceeding the level seen in March this year.
In terms of realized profits, long-term holders are currently cashing out up to $20.2 billion in profits per day, a new all-time high. This indicates that the market needs strong demand to absorb this excess supply, and this process may require a period of re-accumulation to complete.
Seller risk ratio below historical peak
To assess whether there is sufficient buying power to absorb the supply, glassnode points out that the
seller risk ratio is currently at a relatively high level (close to the blue line (high ratio) in the chart), indicating that there has been significant profit realization at the current price range.
However, this ratio is still far below its previous peak, suggesting that even under similar relative distribution pressure, the previous bull market saw sufficient demand to absorb the supply.
The seller risk ratio is used to evaluate investors' selling behavior by analyzing the proportion of their realized profits or losses relative to the asset's Realized Cap.
- High ratio (blue line): Investors sell at high profits or losses, usually occurring after violent price fluctuations, and the market needs time to rebalance.
- Low ratio (red line): Most transactions are close to the cost price, the market is in a balanced state with lower volatility, and the consumption of profits and losses may be nearing its end.
Coins older than 1 year have not seen significant selling
Additionally, in assessing the composition of the spending, glassnode points out that the majority of the selling pressure comes from Bitcoin between 6 months and 1 year old, highlighting that coins held for more than 1 year have not seen significant selling, requiring higher prices to attract these tokens to be realized.
glassnode's statistics show that tokens in the 6-month to 1-year range dominate the current selling pressure, accounting for 35.3%.
- 6 months - 1 year realized profits: $12.6B
- 1y - 2y realized profits: $7.2B
- 2y - 3y realized profits: $4.8B
- 3y - 5y realized profits: $6.3B
- 5y+ realized profits: $4.8B
$88,000 is a key support level to be tested
To assess the sustainability of this rally, glassnode compares the current unrealized profit distribution (URPD) structure with the peak in March 2024. The agency states that in March 2024, with the launch of ETFs driving price increases for several months, supply in the $40,000 to $73,000 range underwent multiple turnovers. In the subsequent seven-month consolidation, this area became one of the most influential supply zones in history, with the re-accumulated supply forming a critical support, laying the foundation for the current market upswing.
The recent market has risen very rapidly, and the trading volume of Bitcoin between $76,000 and $88,000 is relatively low, which may become the test area when the market adjusts. This is because price discovery is a process that often requires rebounds, corrections, and integration to confirm the new price range and find a new equilibrium point.
