Weekly Review
This week from November 25 to December 2, the highest price of BTC was around $98,871, the lowest was close to $90,791, and the fluctuation range was about 8.17%. Observing the distribution of trading volume, there is a large amount of trading volume around 96,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
• Analysis:
1. Around 2.24 million in 60,000-68,000;
2. Around 970,000 in 90,000-97,000;
• The probability of not falling below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not breaking through 100,000-105,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important News
Economic News
1. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged in December is 32.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 67.1%.
2. The Morgan Stanley trading team believes that the S&P 500 will approach 6,300 points by the end of the year.
3. New York Fed President Williams: Inflation is higher than the 2% target. As time goes on, it will be appropriate to bring interest rates back to a neutral level.
4. The German trade union announced: About 66,000 Volkswagen auto workers participated in the strike.
5. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger was forced to leave the company, as the previous board lost confidence in his plan to help the company turn around.
Crypto Ecosystem News
1. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer: Expects the US to quickly enact cryptocurrency laws after Trump takes office.
2. Analyst Fournier pointed out that "profit-taking is obvious, and a huge sell wall of over 4,000 BTC, about $384 million, must be cleared before higher prices can be reached.
3. 10x Research recently released a report stating that the BTC balance of cryptocurrency exchanges has reached a historical low, and on-chain data shows that the amount of BTC available for purchase has dropped sharply.
4. The rebound in Ethereum price has driven the recovery of the Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market, with NFT sales reaching a six-month high in November.
5. Hong Kong SFC: The licensing of Hong Kong virtual asset trading platforms will be announced by the end of the year
6. On November 30, according to Farside Investors data, the net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $332 million yesterday, the first time it exceeded the Bitcoin spot ETF ($320 million).
7. Trump nominated 5 "cryptocurrency players" as new government officials
Long-term Insights: For observing our long-term situation; bull/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Medium-term Exploration: For analyzing what stage we are currently in, how long it will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term Observation: For analyzing the short-term market conditions; as well as the probability of some directions and certain events occurring under certain premises
Long-term Insights
• Large exchange transfers
• ETF fund flow
• US buying power
• Whale status
Large exchange transfers show that there are still many high-net-worth participants showing significant buying intentions.
The ETF's capital reserves have recovered in a positive direction, but not as violent and fierce as before. The overall market atmosphere is still relatively positive.
The US buying power is showing a positive trend, and the atmosphere in the Americas is strong.
Whales are still persistently buying. Overall, the market, apart from slightly increased pressure, is still supported by relatively substantial new growth and buying power.
Medium-term Exploration
• Network sentiment positivity
• Comprehensive score of whale buying power
• Comprehensive score of USDC buying power
• WTR risk observation indicator 1
• Changes in ETF channel capital inflows and outflows
The network sentiment has shown a noticeable decline recently, and the current value is constantly decreasing. The overall trading enthusiasm in the market may have declined.
Whales still have a relatively high score, indicating that they may still have strong holding intentions, and the overall group participation enthusiasm is relatively high.
The buying power of USDC is still very strong, and it still has a high score during the high-level volatility period.
US users may not have an overall intention to exit the current situation.
Compared to the risks of BTC and ETH, the current risks hidden in the market may still be concentrated on ETH. The risk factor of ETH has risen relatively fast recently, which may be a challenge the market needs to face.
The capital inflow into the ETF channel has become slow, and the participation enthusiasm is relatively cautious. The current pace of the market may have an overall contraction, waiting for a turning point with greater momentum.
Short-term Observation
• Derivatives risk factor
• Option open interest ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• BTC exchange net position
• ETH exchange net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global buying power status
• Stablecoin exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the red zone, and the derivatives risk is increasing.
The market was more inclined to fluctuate last week, and the risk factor was close to the neutral zone. This week, the market will still rely more on increments, and derivatives will still have a relatively small impact on the market.
The put-call ratio is at a high level, and the trading volume is at a medium level.
Last week, it was mentioned that when the derivatives trading volume was at a low level, the market should wait for the next wave of volatility. After last week, a small correction occurred, and the trading volume has fallen back to a low level again, indicating that a new wave of volatility will come this week.
The implied volatility of options has not changed too much.
Sentiment Status Rating: Neutral
The market sentiment has fallen back to the neutral zone from the greed of last week.
The positive sentiment in the market has declined, and the panic sentiment has not risen too much, indicating that the market is still in a healthy state.
The number of new and active addresses is at a high level.
Spot and Selling Pressure Structure Rating: BTC is in a large outflow state, ETH is in an overall inflow accumulation.
The BTC exchange net position has been in a large outflow accumulation.
Although the ETH exchange net position has a small outflow, it is still in an overall inflow accumulation state.
The profit-taking selling by old addresses has eased.
Buying Power Rating: Global buying power and stablecoin buying power are flat with last week, both in a positive recovery state.
The global buying power is basically flat with last week.
The stablecoin buying power is flat with last week, and is in a positive recovery state.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is buying interest around $94,000; there is selling interest around $100,000.
There is buying interest around $84,000-$90,000 and $94,000;
There is selling interest around $100,000.
There is a willingness to buy in the price range of around 84,000-90,000;
There is a willingness to sell around the price of 100,000.
There is a willingness to buy in the price range of around 84,000-90,000;
There is a willingness to sell around the price of 100,000.
Weekly Summary
Summary of News
1. September 2024 became the fourth largest interest rate cut month of the century, with 26 central banks around the world implementing interest rate cut policies.
2. This trend continued in November, marking a new cycle in global monetary policy.
3. Looking ahead to 2025, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates by 1-1.5 percentage points.
4. Against this backdrop, major central banks around the world may follow the Federal Reserve's lead and further improve the liquidity environment.
5. Remain optimistic about the performance of the capital market in 2025.
Long-term On-chain Insights:
1. Large exchange transfers show that whales are still persistently buying;
2. ETF fund inflows show a slight rebound in market buying sentiment;
3. US market buying power is positive and active;
4. Whales are relatively actively buying.
• Market Positioning:
Buying support is still ongoing, and needs to digest the selling pressure from long-term participants who have taken profits.
Medium-term On-chain Exploration:
1. Participation enthusiasm in the market has declined;
2. The whale group still has a high holding willingness;
3. US users have not shown a collective withdrawal phenomenon;
4. The current risk is mainly concentrated in ETH;
5. ETF inflows have become more cautious.
• Market Positioning:
Cautious
The current may be a phase of moderation, with key groups in the market still actively participating, but overall participants have become more cautious.
Short-term On-chain Observation:
1. The risk factor is in the red zone, and derivative risks have increased.
2. The number of new active addresses is at a high level, indicating high market activity.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. The net position of exchanges shows a large outflow of BTC and an overall inflow of ETH.
5. Global buying power and stablecoin buying power are flat compared to last week, both in a positive rebound state.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows buying interest around 94,000 and selling interest around 100,000.
7. The probability of not breaking below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not breaking through 100,000-105,000 in the short term is 60%.
• Market Positioning:
The market's positive sentiment has shifted from exuberant to neutral, and the overall short-term market condition is good. The next wave of volatility is brewing.
Risk Warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not constitute directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent the risk of black swan events in the market.
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