火星财经消息，本周备受关注的美国11月非农就业数据好于预期，但尚未火热到足以阻止美联储在本月晚些时候再次降息。市场将12月降息25个基点的概率推高至90%左右。与此同时，越来越多美联储官员倾向于谨慎降息。未来一周美国通胀数据是唯一可能撼动美联储12月降息预期的重要数据，在数据显示美国劳动力市场仍然强劲但也有放缓迹象后，美联储官员似乎有望在本月降息，但有关明年可能暂停降息的辩论已经摆上桌面。在美联储静默期前发表讲话的政策制定者普遍表示，他们预计利率继续下降，同时对降息步伐持谨慎态度，以下是新的一周里市场将重点关注的要点： 周一9:30，中国11月CPI年率； 周一23:00，美国10月批发销售月率； 周二0:00，美国11月纽约联储1年通胀预期； 周三21:30，美国11月CPI和核心CPI； 周四21:30，美国至12月7日当周初请失业金人数；美国11月PPI年率、月率； 周五1:00，美联储公布2024年第三季度帐户资金流动； 周五21:30，美国11月进口物价指数月率。

<div>火星财经消息，本周备受关注的美国11月非农就业数据好于预期，但尚未火热到足以阻止美联储在本月晚些时候再次降息。市场将12月降息25个基点的概率推高至90%左右。与此同时，越来越多美联储官员倾向于谨慎降息。未来一周美国通胀数据是唯一可能撼动美联储12月降息预期的重要数据，在数据显示美国劳动力市场仍然强劲但也有放缓迹象后，美联储官员似乎有望在本月降息，但有关明年可能暂停降息的辩论已经摆上桌面。在美联储静默期前发表讲话的政策制定者普遍表示，他们预计利率继续下降，同时对降息步伐持谨慎态度，以下是新的一周里市场将重点关注的要点： 周一9:30，中国11月CPI年率； 周一23:00，美国10月批发销售月率； 周二0:00，美国11月纽约联储1年通胀预期； 周三21:30，美国11月CPI和核心CPI； 周四21:30，美国至12月7日当周初请失业金人数；美国11月PPI年率、月率； 周五1:00，美联储公布2024年第三季度帐户资金流动； 周五21:30，美国11月进口物价指数月率。</div>

下周宏观展望：美联储进入常规的静默期，CPI数据或再造降息悬念

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

The Mars Finance news reported that the closely watched US non-farm payroll data for November this week was better than expected, but not hot enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again later this month. The market has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December to around 90%. At the same time, more and more Fed officials are inclined to be cautious about rate cuts. The US inflation data in the coming week is the only important data that could shake the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in December. After the data showed that the US labor market remains strong but also has signs of slowing, Fed officials seem to be expected to cut rates this month, but the debate on possibly pausing rate cuts next year has already been put on the table. Policymakers who spoke before the Fed's silent period generally said they expect interest rates to continue to decline, while taking a cautious approach to the pace of rate cuts. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
<Monday 9:30, China's November CPI year-on-year>
<Monday 23:00, US October wholesale sales month-on-month>
<Tuesday 0:00, US November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation>
<Wednesday 21:30, US November CPI and core CPI>
<Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7; US November PPI year-on-year, month-on-month>
<Friday 1:00, the Fed releases the flow of funds for the third quarter of 2024>
<Friday 21:30, US November import price index month-on-month>

<div>Mars Finance News, the closely watched US non-farm payroll data for November this week was better than expected, but not hot enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again later this month. The market has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December to around 90%. At the same time, more and more Fed officials are inclined to be cautious about rate cuts. The US inflation data next week is the only important data that could shake the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in December. After the data showed that the US labor market remains strong but also has signs of slowing, Fed officials seem likely to cut rates this month, but the debate on possibly pausing rate cuts next year has already been put on the table. Policymakers who spoke before the Fed's silent period generally said they expect interest rates to continue to decline, while taking a cautious approach to the pace of rate cuts. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are: Monday 9:30, China's CPI year-on-year for November; Monday 23:00, US wholesale sales month-on-month for October; Tuesday 0:00, US New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation for November; Wednesday 21:30, US CPI and core CPI for November; Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7, US PPI year-on-year and month-on-month for November; Friday 1:00, the Fed releases the flow of funds for the third quarter of 2024; Friday 21:30, US import price index month-on-month for November.</div>

Next week's macro outlook: The Fed enters its regular silent period, and CPI data may create suspense about interest rate cuts

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Morgan Stanley's bond expert Bill Eigen warned the market before the next Fed meeting that the Fed's room for rate cuts may not be as large as it imagines, and it would be better for central banks not to cut rates again in December. He added that this is because there are some signs that the US economy is starting to heat up again, including strong GDP growth, slightly higher-than-expected inflation data last month, and record-high stock prices. Wage, service and housing inflation appear to be particularly thorny and may even rise. Housing prices are still one of the biggest drivers of inflation in October, up 4.9% year-on-year. The Fed has cut rates by 75 basis points so far this year and may be closer to the neutral rate than it thinks. (Gold Ten)

JPMorgan: Fed should not cut rates again in December

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analyst Anstey stated that due to some complex signals in today's report, the CPI inflation report next week may have a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate forecast for 2025. Given the higher-than-expected wage growth reported today, service sector inflation (excluding housing) will be particularly worth watching. (Gold Ten)

Next week's CPI report could have a sizable impact on the Fed's 2025 interest rate forecast

According to Russ Brownback, the global head of fixed income macro strategy at BlackRock, the "quite strong" US employment report released on Friday may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this month, as the Fed's policy rate is still restrictive. Despite evidence of continued economic growth, some stickiness in inflation, and the stock market near historical highs, traders on Thursday morning expected the Fed to likely decide to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75% later this month. Brownback said one reason for the rate cut may be that the Fed's "real" policy rate is currently higher than in July 2023, when the Fed made its last rate hike to curb high inflation. (<Odaily Planet Daily>)