Compiled by : Wu Blockchain about Blockchain

In this episode of Good Game Podcast, Imran and Qiao explore the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency, including market cycles, AI Agents using governance tokens to replace KOLs, and the impact of stablecoins in developing countries. They also mention DePIN's role in coordinating industries such as energy and computing, and point out the potential for seamless integration of AI and cryptocurrency. Despite optimism about innovation, they also warn against over-hype.

DeepSeek's self-financing model poses challenges to traditional AI startups

Imran: Last time I was in Dubai, the whole area was flooded. I had to move from one hotel to another. But during that time, I had a lot of thinking because I felt like we are entering a new era of cryptocurrency. A lot of things seem to be about to change, right? For example, Mark Zuckerberg's announcement today. Did you see it?

Qiao: Do ​​you mean the entire content review team was fired?

Imran: Yes, and they moved some of them to Texas. There is a clear bias in California. So, I think the next four years will be a completely different era than the past few years at least. This will bring new business models and technological updates, such as the development of artificial intelligence or innovations in cryptocurrencies, such as stablecoins. We are really entering a new phase. It's interesting. Did you see the update...I think it's called DeepMind or DeepDive? It's a Chinese engineering team that successfully defeated OpenAI.

Qiao: It happened last week.

Imran: Yeah, that was last week. You know what I'm talking about?

Qiao: Yeah, I know.

Imran: I think this is a big deal. Now, you don't need to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on hardware. You can launch a competitive product at one-tenth the cost. Do you know the details behind it? I don't know it myself.

Qiao: No, I just know that they surpassed OpenAI in various benchmarks. But I’m not sure if it has anything to do with the cost.

Imran: I think part of it is that they didn’t raise any venture capital. Supposedly, the team is completely independent of outside funding. I read an AI expert in Silicon Valley mention that future AI startups may not need venture capital at all. These are people who came from Citadel or some quant trading team and left to start their own business, completely self-funded. It’s interesting because similar things are happening in the cryptocurrency space, right?

Qiao: Wait, what did they achieve without venture capital?

Imran: Yeah. They bought a bunch of hardware. I think they used their own money to buy $6 million worth of hardware and built this project. What was it called? DeepSeek… Wait, I have it bookmarked, let me check…

Qiao: I just read an article in TechCrunch that said this is a well-funded artificial intelligence laboratory.

Imran: I read somewhere that they didn’t take any venture capital.

Qiao: I think that if you don’t accept venture capital now, you will not be able to compete with OpenAI at all.

Imran: Maybe that was the wrong message.

Qiao: You need a lot of data, hardware, and excellent engineers. Maybe the founders themselves are very rich, or they are particularly liquid?

Imran: DeepSeek was funded by quant trading firms, but not venture capital in the traditional sense. So they did have funding, but it was entirely from the quant trading firm they left.

Qiao: So, they do have money.

Imran: Yes , they do have money. They operate on a parametric model rather than relying on external venture capital.

Commercialization of the basic model and competition in distribution channels

Qiao: From this news, I think the moat of the basic model may not be that deep. Like OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, even Facebook's Llama and some Chinese companies, I think they will all converge at some point. At the basic model level, these technologies may eventually be commoditized. Because as long as you can get all the data on the Internet and have enough money, the technology itself is no longer a secret weapon. Now it is more of an engineering implementation problem.

Imran: Yes, I agree.

Qiao: So I actually expect these basic models to eventually converge. In fact, you know Fred Wilson, right? He writes a New Year's prediction article every year.

The first point in his 2025 predictions is that Google and another big tech company — I forget which one — will beat OpenAI through distribution. His point is that technology has been commoditized and distribution is king.

Imran: Yes, that's exactly what I think. I think the most important thing now is to have the end user. If you have the ability to distribute and directly reach users and let them use your product, that's the key. In fact, I recently watched a video from YC (Y Combinator) about artificial intelligence, and they mentioned that they didn't think routing technology (AI Routing or Model Routing) would become a big area initially. Even so, they funded some startups in this area, and it turned out to be a huge development direction.

At the end of the day, if you have control over the end user, you can switch between different models based on user needs. I think this technology is called "Open Routing Models" or something like that. Essentially, it's a router that can connect to a specific model based on the application requirements. This also shows that the model itself is becoming commoditized.

Qiao: Yes, I agree.

The rise of AI Agent fever: From white papers to GitHub

Qiao: So, what do you think of the current craze for artificial intelligence agents (AI Agents)?

Imran: I find this very interesting. I was discussing this with one of the Slop founders on our team yesterday. Here’s how I described it:

2017 was the era of ICO white papers. Anyone with a white paper, or even just a connection to Vitalik Buterin, could easily get funding, and token prices would soar. Then came the DeFi summer of 2020, when projects like SushiSwap were funded and quickly rose to prominence. Then came the era of NFTs.

We are now in a very similar era. The difference is that now it is no longer based on white papers, but on GitHub repositories. People evaluate projects based on their activity on GitHub and the number of Twitter followers. These have almost replaced the way ICOs are promoted.

The market is full of hype and noise, and many teams are able to get financing based on just some superficial signals. Of course, there are some truly strong teams building impactful products. However, due to the frenzy of the bull market, the excessive noise level makes it more difficult for those credible teams to gain real recognition from the market.

Signals and noise in the current AI metaverse market

Qiao: Are we approaching the end of the AI ​​meta-era?

Imran: I don't think we've reached the end of the AI ​​meta-era. My main basis for this is that just yesterday or the day before yesterday, Sam Altman posted a tweet about AGI. He mentioned AGI (artificial general intelligence) and the prospect that agents might gradually enter the workforce. Although he didn't explicitly say AGI would appear in 2025, he did mention that robots would start to enter the workforce.

This has reignited optimism about encrypted AI agents. In addition, last night Huang Renxun gave a major speech introducing their upcoming new hardware. He highlighted the next big opportunity for AI agents and described it as a trillion-dollar market.

Judging from these macro dynamics, I think people's enthusiasm for crypto AI agents is recovering. However, so far, we have not found any truly successful application scenarios for crypto AI agents. Of course, there are some examples, but none of them can clearly stand out as a successful product at the intersection of cryptocurrency and AI agents.

For example, Sphere One is a platform where you can talk to an agent and it will help you fulfill your order - it's fun. Meanwhile, the Orbit team and the Slop team are trying some more experimental things. They are looking at how to get people to play games together and create videos together. But I think their ultimate direction is to build a social media platform that works for both agents and non-agents.

These are the two teams we’re watching closely. Of course, there are many other interesting efforts in this space that I could list one by one, but for now, these are the highlights I think.

Potential AI Bubble: A 1999-Style Boom and Crash Analogy

Qiao: From a macro perspective, I would not be surprised that we will experience a bubble similar to 1999. In the next 2-3 years, I think there is a 50% chance that this will happen. This means that AI-related stocks will experience dramatic, exponential, and parabolic growth, and eventually spread to the cryptocurrency field.

Imran: Do you think a similar dynamic is going to happen?

Qiao: Yes, stocks may trade at ridiculous valuations, such as outrageous price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios, and generally inflated metrics. In addition, it is likely that AI infrastructure companies will become the most valuable players, just as we see with Nvidia and TSM today. This is similar to the tech bubble in 1999, when companies like Cisco and Intel were the "picks and shovels" providers of the Internet, rather than companies at the application layer.

Application layer giants like Google, Facebook, and Amazon didn’t emerge until the next decade. Sure, Amazon was already doing $1 billion in annual revenue in 1999, but the biggest players at the time were infrastructure companies. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a similar trajectory in AI.

Imran: Why do you think it will take two to three years? Why not this year?

Qiao: It could happen this year, but I haven’t felt the extreme enthusiasm in the AI ​​field yet. There is some hype, but it’s not crazy yet. For example, Nvidia’s current P/E ratio is around 30 times. For a technology company with an annual growth rate of 50%, this is very reasonable.

In 1999, companies like Cisco and Intel had P/E ratios of hundreds of times. Many large Internet companies at that time were not profitable at all, or even losing money. But this is not the case with Nvidia and TSM today. So there may be a bubble this year, but so far, the market has not shown that kind of enthusiasm.

I think people tend to underestimate how long it will take for AI to really go mainstream.

Imran: I agree with most of what you said. I do believe we will see something similar to the dot-com bubble in AI. What I have reservations about though is the exponential growth of AI models themselves. This growth drives better product development and instant gratification of user needs. This may lead to a different dynamic than the dot-com bubble. Today’s AI products have a direct impact on users, while during the dot-com bubble, many Internet services were still in their infancy.

Qiao: That's true. But we can't ignore the huge value during the Internet bubble. For example, Amazon had already generated $1 billion in revenue in 1999.

Imran: Yes, but the Internet was not as widespread as it is today. There were no distribution channels or delivery systems. AI is already widely available on various devices.

Qiao: Of course, there are many practical AI products now. For example, ChatGPT is very practical, and code assistance tools like Cursor are also valuable. But if you compare the current state with the potential market size of AI that people imagine, it is still relatively small. AI is expected to have a huge impact on society, but it may take ten or even twenty years to achieve this goal. We may see a significant increase in productivity during this time.

Imran: Yes, that makes sense.

Qiao: It will take at least ten or twenty years. It is impossible to achieve this year. For example, global GDP cannot grow by 50% this year. It may not even reach 5%. It is likely to be in the range of 2%-3%. It may take ten years to achieve a stable growth of 5%-7%.

I saw a lot of people on Twitter this morning expressing excessive concern about AI. People are panicking.

Imran: Yes, there is a bit of over-exuberance around AI.

The impact and popularity of AI technology: evolution from personal life to market cycle

Qiao: I have been thinking about this question for a while. Since ChatGPT was first launched two years ago, I started to try to use AI and think about how it might change my life. My conclusion is: it will not change my life significantly. I will continue to live the same way as before. Maybe productivity will increase in ten years, but my daily life will not change drastically. For example, the way my children are educated will not change much. I still want them to focus on independent thinking and creativity, rather than simple memorization and repetition. AI will not change this.

Imran: I agree that big changes won’t happen overnight, but AI has already brought some small changes in my life. For example, I use AI to help my daughter learn something. There are also medical diagnosis. For example, when I was in Turkey, my son was sick and I used ChatGPT to analyze the symptoms and get possible diagnosis results.

But mass adoption depends on user behavior. As deep users of AI, we can quickly see its benefits. But what about everyone else? That’s still an unknown. I only recently got my mother started using ChatGPT, and now she uses it regularly. However, when I asked others if they had used ChatGPT, most said no. It all comes down to whether people’s behavior will change to adapt to these new products.

Qiao: ChatGPT already has more than 100 million users.

Imran: There are about 300 million monthly active users.

Qiao: That's about 5% of the world's population. In terms of penetration, it's already more than cryptocurrency. However, I'm not that worried about AI. Yes, the world will change a little bit, maybe a little faster, but it won't be a drastic, sudden shift.

Imran: Take the Optimus robot. In their recent demonstration, most of the operations still require a lot of human assistance and are not fully autonomous yet. It's a bit like Tesla's self-driving car. When I bought the Tesla in 2017, it only had partial self-driving capabilities. Over the next four or five years, as data collection improved, it has now achieved full self-driving capabilities. But this process took about eight years.

I think it will probably take longer, at least six to ten years, to get AI agents working effectively. Sam Altman may feel competitive pressure from projects like DeepSeek, but it will take time to see real progress.

Qiao: People tend to forget that AI is not new. It has been around for decades. It’s only in the last 40 to 50 years that advances in data, algorithms, and hardware have gotten us to where we are today.

Imran: Yes, Eliza was one of the first AI chatbots, developed by Joseph Weizenbaum in 1966. It simulated a conversation with a psychotherapist. So these concepts have been around for a long time, it’s just that the technology has finally caught up.

Qiao: Back to the AI ​​Agent craze, it all depends on whether AI stocks will have a 1999-style bubble and how this interacts with the cryptocurrency cycle. At present, I think the AI ​​craze can continue for at least a few months. Just last week, people were arguing whether AI Agent had entered the "mid-curve" stage. I was worried that we might be close to the frenzy stage, but now I am not sure.

Imran: I think this AI Agent craze will continue to drive crypto as long as OpenAI and Nvidia keep releasing new news. It may last much longer than a few months. I thought the craze was dying down last week, but the big announcements from Sam Altman and Jensen Huang brought it back.

The end of the bull market and future possibilities

Imran: So, where are we in the market cycle right now? This is a question we discuss frequently to help our audience better understand the market dynamics.

Qiao: I think the current market cycle is about 8/9. In terms of price and time, there may be 10%-15% growth space left, and perhaps 10%-20% time left.

Imran: This means that there are probably 3 to 12 months left. There are two possible scenarios: one is that prices quickly enter a parabolic rise, pushing the market to a rapid peak, and the cycle ends between March and June; the other is that the market experiences a period of volatility before a parabolic rise.

Qiao: This makes sense and is consistent with the market consensus. I have no objection to it.

Imran: Unless there is a new series of major announcements in the AI ​​space, this trend may continue as expected. If AI continues to power the crypto market, it may push the market higher.

Market risks: macro factors, MicroStrategy risks and the end of the cycle

Qiao: Key risk factors this year include Trump - will he deliver on the policies he has hinted at, such as building up a Bitcoin reserve?

Imran: If he does deliver and other countries start to follow suit, the entire market cycle could be broken.

Qiao: Macro factors are also a major risk. Will inflation return this year? Will quantitative easing (QE) be restarted? How will interest rate cuts unfold? Currently, US stock valuations are very high, close to the level during the 2021 bubble period and slightly lower than the high point of the 1999 Internet bubble.

Imran: But the economic situation now is completely different from that time.

Qiao: That's true, but the market is still expensive, which increases the risk. Another big risk is MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor.

Imran: GCR recently discussed this topic on Telegram. He mentioned that MicroStrategy is fine at the moment, but if their average Bitcoin cost rises to $150,000, it could become a problem. Right now their cost is around $60,000 to $70,000.

Qiao: Why would it be a problem if their average cost rose to $150,000?

Imran: It's about volatility. If the Bitcoin price can't stay at that level, MicroStrategy could be in trouble. If the SEC or other external factors cause MicroStrategy's stock price to plummet, it could trigger panic selling.

Qiao: Dan from CMS has a different view. He believes that because MicroStrategy's stock price is at a premium to Bitcoin, people are arbitraging by selling MicroStrategy's stock and buying Bitcoin. This approach works well, but if MicroStrategy's stock price becomes discounted relative to Bitcoin, this situation may flip and bring serious risks.

Imran: Yes, it depends on the broader market context. One or two days of volatility is not a big deal, but if MicroStrategy is in trouble for a long time, it may cause a chain reaction.

Qiao: In any case , I think the market is still on an upward trend.

Imran: Yes, but judging by the social media timelines, everyone is having a bit of PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder). Last week, some people were predicting that Bitcoin would top out at $70,000 or $85,000.

Qiao: Indeed, we are now closer to the end of the cycle than the middle.

Imran: If you are already profitable, now is a good time to start cashing out gradually. No one can perfectly predict the top, so it is wiser to lock in gains while you can.

Qiao: I haven’t started cashing out yet.

Imran: I haven't started either. But for our audience, this is the third or fourth market cycle we've been through, and we're used to being on the edge of the cycle.

AI Agent Tokenization Controversy

Qiao: I realized this morning that I kind of miss the bear market.

Imran: I agree. Back then everything was quiet and you could focus on building products and talking to users. Now, everyone thinks they are a genius.

Qiao: I also find the AI ​​craze not that exciting.

Imran: I was excited at first , but after looking at so many projects, I started getting bored.

Qiao: My confusion is that good products do not need tokens, but good tokens do not need products. If an AI Agent is an excellent product, why does it need tokens?

Imran: I basically agree, but tokens may make sense in some edge cases. For example, agents governed by tokens can be used to manage revenue or work output, which leaves room for innovative governance and token design.

Qiao: That’s right, but I remain skeptical about whether this tokenization trend will be successful in the long run.

Imran: That’s why we only invest in a few AI crypto startups. We want to test the waters and be cautious. If the project succeeds, great; if it fails, we can learn from it.

PumpFun Launches: Memecoin, DeSci, AI Agent

Qiao: Is there anything else interesting happening?

Imran: PumpFun launched a startup launchpad, and recently a project called Hyperfy went live - a game metaverse ecosystem built around the Eliza framework. It is open source and integrates Eliza into the network.

Qiao: They have turned the fund into a launch pad for a variety of projects. People often think of Pump as a meme coin launch pad, but projects like Decentralized Science (DeSci) were also launched here.

Imran: Exactly.

Qiao: Most AI Agent coins are issued on Pump.

Imran: Pump funds are becoming a liquidity black hole in all sectors. It almost dominates capital allocation.

Qiao: Where have I heard the term “liquidity black hole”?

Imran： Oh, that was Ben’s idea, remember OlympusDAO (OHM)? That’s where the idea came from.

Qiao: This analogy is indeed very apt.

AI Agent Craze and DeFi Summer

Qiao: I saw someone on Twitter comparing the AI ​​Agent craze to DeFi Summer.

Imran: Have you seen the Messari chart?

Qiao: I have. The core meaning of the chart is that the market value of the Agent craze is now similar to the early stages of DeFi Summer. In the year after DeFi Summer, DeFi activity exploded due to the growth of the entire market. So the chart suggests that the Agent craze is still in its early stages. But frankly, I am far less interested in the Agent craze than DeFi Summer. The atmosphere at that time was incomparable.

Imran: DeFi Summer was indeed a magical moment. I think crypto Twitter wants to recreate that magic, so it’s pushing these narratives.

Qiao: Exactly. DeFi Summer feels more like a “right curve” craze, while Agent craze feels more like a “left curve”.

Imran: It is indeed a "left curve". I was expecting more innovations from the "right curve", but some of the tweets really disappointed me.

Qiao: Is there anything else worth paying attention to?

Imran: We’ve already discussed how pump funds are becoming liquidity black holes. In addition, we’re seeing startups being launched at an alarming rate—white papers are being posted to GitHub at lightning speed. This reminds me of 2017, when ICOs were a craze and platforms like Token Relations and Ian Balina’s website were the go-to tools for finding projects. Back then, you needed to read white papers, research teams, and participate with ETH or BTC, which could take hours or even days. Now, you just see a code with an “AI” label and All In.

Qiao: And then sell it two seconds later.

Imran: You have to do this, otherwise you will get smashed. This is how the system works now.

Qiao: This is very similar to the evolution of social media, from requiring long periods of attention to the current short-term content consumption.

Imran: Absolutely. This shift has also impacted capital allocation. Pump has become the de facto platform, just like automated market makers (AMMs) are the basis for token swaps. Pump is now essential for crypto AI startups.

Decentralized computing projects: io net, Helium, Glow

Qiao: Which crypto AI projects are you interested in?

Imran: I am interested in decentralized computing projects, such as io net. They are said to have made considerable revenue from decentralized GPUs. For example, Helium's annual revenue is about $10 million, and io net is performing quite well.

Qiao: I am skeptical about the decentralized GPU market. In the long run, I don't think decentralization can provide enough economies of scale to compete with centralized providers. Centralization will ultimately provide cheaper services.

Imran: That’s a fair point, but I’m curious as to who exactly is using these decentralized GPUs today. Anyway, the leading DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure network) player right now is Glow.

Qiao: Glow was part of our accelerator program in Portugal a few years ago. I remember they had a hard time raising funding after their demo day.

Imran: Yes, but now they have generated $20 million in ARR. That’s a phenomenal transformation.

Trend prediction: stablecoins, decentralized infrastructure and artificial intelligence

Qiao: Let’s start talking about predictions?

Imran: Okay. Let's talk about our forecast for this year.

Qiao: My point is that the crypto industry is in a unique stage - it is neither too early to be a trend, nor too late to be a trend. This means that we can refer to historical trends to speculate what might happen in the next few years.

Qiao: For example, stablecoins will continue to grow. DePIN is also in a good position for growth. The total amount of on-chain activity will likely continue to increase, and the proportion of activity on centralized exchanges will increase.

The chart you showed me this morning showed that over the last few years, the market share of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) has grown from 10% to 30%, which is a strong performance compared to centralized exchanges. What else? AI and cryptocurrencies? I mean, if we continue to extrapolate the price trend, the price will go up. Now is the time for the trend extension in the cryptocurrency field.

Imran: In my opinion, before 2016, there were almost no real use cases for cryptocurrencies. In 2017, there was a wave of experimental ideas - do you remember Mist Wallet? It was one of the earliest wallets for Ethereum. They tried to create a dashboard that could do everything, but failed because the technology was too advanced. In 2020, we started exploring specific niches, such as DeFi and NFTs. At this stage, we are exploring all areas that cryptocurrencies can touch.

Take DeSci. Some people think it's a scam now, but over time, some legitimate projects will emerge. The same is true for AI and cryptocurrencies, and all other areas. In the past decade, we have tested many areas one by one. I think we are close to exploring most of the possibilities.

Qiao: To me, the two most obvious directions for the intersection of cryptocurrencies and these areas are cross-industry financing and collaboration. Cross-industry financing is still underexplored - you can fund almost any industry with cryptocurrencies. And collaboration is at the heart of the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN). This is not a single vertical, but a way of operating across multiple industries. In essence, DePIN is a way to coordinate capital and resources through tokens. It is a means, not an end goal.

Imran: I agree, it’s probably 80% of the value, but there are still some novel and interesting use cases to look forward to in the remaining 20%.

Qiao: There is also financial technology, especially stablecoins. This will be an important direction - we are actually just deducing based on historical trends.

Imran: But we haven’t seen any mainstream neo-banks adopt stablecoins on a large scale yet.

Qiao: For example, Nubank in Brazil.

Imran: I am thinking more of the emerging banks in the US or English-speaking countries.

Qiao: I do see a lot of content about stablecoin adoption in the U.S., but I don’t think it will happen in the short term. Stablecoins are very useful in cross-border payments, hedging against local currency depreciation, micropayments, and eliminating chargeback risks for merchants. However, these use cases are not particularly relevant in the U.S. because payment systems such as credit cards and Apple Pay are already dominant.

Imran: Absolutely right. In the United States, the dollar is already digital in nature, and stablecoins are just an extension of it, with little added value.

Qiao: But outside the United States, especially in developing countries, stablecoins are 10 times more valuable than traditional financial tracks. This is why most of the stablecoin startups we invest in are located in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America.

Imran: From a global perspective, stablecoins or “cryptodollars” meet a huge demand outside the U.S. They can drive prediction markets and the formation of global capital pools, which are more difficult to achieve in the traditional system.

AI Social Token: AI Agent becomes a new social influence tool

Qiao: Maybe something new will come out of the intersection of cryptocurrency and AI. I feel like the most interesting products won’t be marketed as “AI crypto.” Instead, they’ll be products that users feel are great without them even realizing that AI or crypto is used behind the scenes. That’s the difference. The current AI Agent craze is too straightforward—it’s mostly around tokens and Large Language Model (LLM)-based Agents, concentrated on platforms like Twitter. It doesn’t look like a truly great product, but more like a trend that’s being forced forward.

Imran: I understand your point, but I noticed that AIXBT has a kind of "magic" about it. This magic is reflected in its ability to provide useful insights on platforms such as Twitter. For example, its tweets often analyze various products and point out key indicators such as their growth potential and possible revenue scale. In essence, it is replacing the role of key opinion leaders (KOLs).

What’s amazing is how viral it is — each tweet attracts about 150,000 views. The concept becomes even more interesting when you think about owning tokens that can promote your own products. Essentially, it’s like an ad network. For example, Woody once offered AIXBT $10,000 to $20,000 in Quantum Cats PFP as a reward for the AI ​​Agent to use his avatar. AIXBT accepted, and the price of Quantum Cats went up as a result. Clearly, something important is happening here.

Qiao: Yes, the idea of ​​AI Agent replacing KOL has been around for a while. This trend started in Japan, where virtual characters have become very popular.

Imran: Yes, but what is unique here is that the community is able to influence the behavior of the Agent through tokens. By purchasing tokens, users can theoretically shape the behavior of the Agent over time.

Qiao: How does purchasing tokens allow users to influence Agents?

Imran: The core is to create a restricted terminal. At present, I am not completely convinced by the current token model of AIXBT. It requires users to purchase tokens to access its terminal interface, which is somewhat similar to ChatGPT's subscription model, but here it is achieved through token ownership. As the token price rises, the barrier to accessing the terminal may become higher and higher, which may limit widespread user adoption.

However, I think this model has broader potential. If we think of Agent as an application that has mastered the end-user relationship, it blurs the line between KOL and robot. People interacting with AIXBT is like talking to a real person. If token holders can influence the behavior of Agent, such as asking it to promote its own products, it will be a disruptive innovation.

Governance and Controversy of AI Social Tokens

Qiao: So, the token is essentially like a governance token?

Imran: Exactly. Through tokens, users can guide the behavior of agents, making them a tool to influence public opinion or promote products. Although this has not yet been fully realized, this is the direction I hope this concept will develop in the future.

Currently, AIXBT's token is actually a governance token. Users buy tokens to access AIXBT's terminal, which is similar to a ChatGPT-style product. However, I envision a more interactive model, such as the one we developed at Slop. In this model, token holders can influence the AI ​​Agent to promote their products or ideas. Given the network effect and high visibility - such as 150,000 views per tweet - this governance model may become an effective tool for obtaining scarce mindshare.

Qiao: The core of the whole AI Agent craze is actually around social tokens. We have discussed social token experiments for years, but these tokens have never gained traction among the "human" community. One of the main reasons is that most KOLs (key opinion leaders) don't want to be tied to tokens. AI Agents don't care.

Imran: Indeed, there is another reason: owning tokens brings performance pressure. KOLs who hold tokens face huge expectations from the community. Crypto users, especially early adopters, are often skeptical and quick to criticize if these expectations are not met.

Qiao: That makes sense. AI agents have no emotions or personal interests, so social tokens are more effective on them. Agents will just follow the task without resistance or concerns.

Imran: This is consistent with one of our core assumptions at Slop. The first is AI agents governed by tokens. The second is what Sphere is working on, which is translating natural language instructions into actionable transactions.

Qiao: I agree. The concept of translating natural language into actionable results has been around for a while, but it is a difficult problem that has not yet been fully solved.

Trump Policies, Bitcoin Forecasts, and the Shift in Market Cycles

Imran: Meanwhile, Trump is stirring up controversy again. He has criticized high interest rates, opposed new wind turbines, and even proposed renaming the Gulf of Mexico the "American Gulf." Clearly, his goal is to push the market higher.

Qiao: Trump does want to push the market higher.

Imran: The next four years look like a very suitable market for “hype”.

Qiao: I think the peak of Bitcoin may be between $140,000 and $500,000, depending on macro conditions and the policies of the new government.

Imran: We discussed this before - you said 500,000, I said 250,000. It's a wide range, but it depends on where the macro developments are going.

Qiao: In addition, the craze of Memecoin has been replaced by the craze of AI Agent. Memecoin is no longer the dominant force in the market.

Imran: Agreed. By the way, Murad is back and his portfolio is doing really well. Last time I checked, he had $53.5 million, with a lot of that invested in Solana and other blockchains.

Qiao: Will we see a Solana ETF?

Imran: I think it is very likely. At the same time, Trump is making bold promises such as big tax cuts, higher wages and improved incomes. Inflation is still high and interest rates are a key issue. Let's see what the Fed decides this month - whether to cut interest rates or maintain the current level.

Qiao: They just need a political excuse to lower interest rates.

Imran: Exactly. No one wants to take responsibility or damage their reputation. Everyone is overly cautious now.

Qiao: I have to go to lunch. I can't wait for the bull market to end and prepare for the next cycle.

Portfolio Discussion: BTC, AI Agents, and the Decline of Memecoin

Imran: Okay, before you go, let’s talk about the portfolio. What is your portfolio right now?

Qiao: I am currently cross margin in BTC and AI Agent.

Imran: This is a very solid barbell strategy. I also own HyperLiquid. I think it is a strong beta investment.

Qiao: HyperLiquid is indeed underestimated, but I don’t think it can outperform AI Agent from now on.

Imran: I agree, it probably won’t outperform AI Agent. However, the combination of it with BTC, HyperLiquid and AI Agent is indeed a good barbell strategy. What about Memecoin? Do you think they will still perform?

Qiao: No, I think the Memecoin craze is over.

Imran: You say the craze is over, but you haven’t sold yet. It’s only over when you actually sell.

Qiao: That’s true, but for me, it’s over.

Imran: Okay, let’s stop here.