火星财经消息，据The Block报道，随着美国当选总统准备于1月20日举行第二次就职典礼，比特币衍生品市场显示出波动性预期增加。Derive.xyz数据显示，比特币中期前景呈现看跌迹象，看跌期权在未平仓合约中的占比已增至40%，一周内大幅上升。Derive.xyz研究主管Sean Dawson指出：“与上周的20%相比，这一比例大幅增加，表明交易员正在对冲特朗普就职典礼临近可能带来的下行风险。”
比特币隐含波动率攀升，市场不确定性加剧。过去一周，比特币七日平价隐含波动率上涨3%至56.5%，30日隐含波动率也增加1.5%至57.5%。Dawson表示，这些趋势反映出市场对就职日前几天比特币价格可能剧烈波动的预期增强。以太坊交易者对波动性的预期更为强烈，过去24小时内，以太坊七日隐含波动率激增6%至74%，30日隐含波动率攀升2.5%至69.5%。Dawson解释称：“以太坊交易者预计即期波动性更大，这可能与以太坊对宏观经济变化的高敏感度及对就职后政策走向的更多猜测有关。”
衍生品市场活动显著增加，过去24小时内，比特币期权未平仓合约量激增至2.37亿美元，交易者参与度提高。Dawson补充道：“比特币看涨期权合约买入占比38%，看跌期权合约买入占比37.3%，交易者显然正在为波动性增加做准备，尤其是就职日即将到来。这种对市场波动的偏好可能反映出美国市场不确定性加剧，因市场对近期降息的预期正在减弱。”

<div>火星财经消息，据The Block报道，随着美国当选总统准备于1月20日举行第二次就职典礼，比特币衍生品市场显示出波动性预期增加。Derive.xyz数据显示，比特币中期前景呈现看跌迹象，看跌期权在未平仓合约中的占比已增至40%，一周内大幅上升。Derive.xyz研究主管Sean Dawson指出：“与上周的20%相比，这一比例大幅增加，表明交易员正在对冲特朗普就职典礼临近可能带来的下行风险。”<p>比特币隐含波动率攀升，市场不确定性加剧。过去一周，比特币七日平价隐含波动率上涨3%至56.5%，30日隐含波动率也增加1.5%至57.5%。Dawson表示，这些趋势反映出市场对就职日前几天比特币价格可能剧烈波动的预期增强。以太坊交易者对波动性的预期更为强烈，过去24小时内，以太坊七日隐含波动率激增6%至74%，30日隐含波动率攀升2.5%至69.5%。Dawson解释称：“以太坊交易者预计即期波动性更大，这可能与以太坊对宏观经济变化的高敏感度及对就职后政策走向的更多猜测有关。”</p><p>衍生品市场活动显著增加，过去24小时内，比特币期权未平仓合约量激增至2.37亿美元，交易者参与度提高。Dawson补充道：“比特币看涨期权合约买入占比38%，看跌期权合约买入占比37.3%，交易者显然正在为波动性增加做准备，尤其是就职日即将到来。这种对市场波动的偏好可能反映出美国市场不确定性加剧，因市场对近期降息的预期正在减弱。”</p></div>

特朗普就职典礼前夕比特币衍生品市场波动加剧

Here is the English translation, with the content within <> retained as is:

The Block reported that as the US President-elect prepares to hold his second inauguration ceremony on January 20, the Bitcoin derivatives market is showing increased volatility expectations. Derive.xyz data shows that the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin is showing bearish signs, with the share of put options in open interest having increased to 40%, a significant rise from 20% a week ago. Derive.xyz research head Sean Dawson noted: "Compared to 20% last week, this proportion has increased significantly, indicating that traders are hedging against the potential downside risks around the inauguration."

Bitcoin's implied volatility has risen, and market uncertainty has intensified. Over the past week, Bitcoin's 7-day realized implied volatility has increased by 3% to 56.5%, and the 30-day implied volatility has also increased by 1.5% to 57.5%. Dawson stated that these trends reflect the market's increased expectations of potentially violent price fluctuations in the days leading up to the inauguration. Ethereum traders' expectations of volatility are even stronger, with the 7-day implied volatility surging 6% to 74% and the 30-day implied volatility rising 2.5% to 69.5% in the past 24 hours. Dawson explained: "Ethereum traders expect greater spot volatility, which may be related to Ethereum's high sensitivity to macroeconomic changes and more speculation about post-inauguration policy directions."

Derivatives market activity has increased significantly, with Bitcoin options open interest surging to $237 million in the past 24 hours, indicating higher trader participation. Dawson added: "The share of Bitcoin call option contracts bought is 38%, and the share of put option contracts bought is 37.3%, indicating that traders are clearly preparing for increased volatility, especially with the inauguration approaching. This preference for market volatility may reflect the heightened uncertainty in the US market, as expectations for near-term rate cuts are waning."

<div>According to a report by The Block, as the US President-elect prepares to hold his second inauguration ceremony on January 20, the Bitcoin derivatives market is showing increased volatility expectations. Derive.xyz data shows that the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin is bearish, with the share of put options in open interest having increased to 40%, a significant rise from 20% a week ago. Derive.xyz research head Sean Dawson noted: "Compared to 20% last week, this proportion has increased significantly, indicating that traders are hedging against the potential downside risks around the inauguration."</p><p>Bitcoin implied volatility has been rising, and market uncertainty has intensified. Over the past week, Bitcoin's 7-day implied volatility has increased by 3% to 56.5%, and the 30-day implied volatility has also risen by 1.5% to 57.5%. Dawson said these trends reflect the market's increased expectations of potential violent price swings in the days leading up to the inauguration. Ethereum traders' expectations of volatility are even stronger, with the 7-day implied volatility surging by 6% to 74% and the 30-day implied volatility climbing by 2.5% to 69.5% in the past 24 hours. Dawson explained: "Ethereum traders anticipate greater spot volatility, which may be related to Ethereum's high sensitivity to macroeconomic changes and more speculation about post-inauguration policy directions."</p><p>Derivatives market activity has increased significantly, with the 24-hour open interest in Bitcoin options reaching $237 million, indicating higher trader participation. Dawson added: "The share of Bitcoin call option contracts bought is 38%, and the share of put option contracts bought is 37.3%, suggesting that traders are preparing for increased volatility, especially with the inauguration approaching. This preference for market volatility may reflect heightened uncertainty in the US market, as expectations for near-term rate cuts are waning."</p></div>

Bitcoin derivatives market volatility rises ahead of Trump inauguration

Author: Xie Zhaoqing, Tencent Finance "Deep Dive" The cryptocurrency market has given back all the gains brought by Trump's inauguration, experiencing an epic crash that has brought back the word "risk," temporarily forgotten by greed, to stare at all investors with its most menacing face.

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Original article | Odaily Odaily(@OdailyChina)
Author｜Azuma (@azuma_eth)
In 2014, CZ, who had only been exposed to the concept of cryptocurrency for a year, made the most daring investment of his life—selling his apartment in Shanghai and "All In" on about 1,500 BTC for a three-figure price. Twelve years later, if CZ had never sold, this investment would have brought in a substantial profit of hundreds of millions of dollars (peak return of about $189 million).
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