Published by | OKGResearch

Author | HedyBi

At 1 a.m. on January 21 (Beijing time), Trump was officially re-inaugurated as President of the United States, and just two days before his inauguration, the market witnessed a globally-watched event: Trump issued a 100x coin called TRUMP. This meme coin, which has no technical foundation and is based entirely on personal branding, saw its market value briefly exceed $8 billion within just a few days. A successful narrative can create consensus, and consensus is an important component of the market.

Against this backdrop, as the founder of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin's growing market influence inevitably leads one to ponder whether Bitcoin in the current era is merely a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system." Whether it is Trump's proposal to view Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve or the fact that some countries have already listed Bitcoin as legal tender, Bitcoin is gradually being seen as one of the potential embodiments of a "global strategic asset." Is this proposal solely due to the scarcity brought about by Bitcoin's fixed supply? We can find its deeper meaning in history.

Oil and Gold: The Strategic Cornerstone of the Nation

Looking back on history, it is not difficult to find that energy and precious metals have always been the core guarantees of a nation's economic security. The 1973 oil crisis forced the United States to establish the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" (SPR) to provide a safeguard against supply chain disruptions. To this day, the United States remains one of the world's major oil reserve countries, with its strategic oil reserves long-term stable at around 700 million barrels, accounting for 15% of global reserves.

Gold, on the other hand, is another more ancient strategic reserve asset. Although the U.S. dollar has been decoupled from gold since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold's status has never been replaced. As a symbol of wealth and credit, gold remains one of the main reserve assets of central banks around the world. The United States currently holds about 8,133 tons of gold reserves, accounting for 23% of the global total, which provides additional stability and credibility to its financial system and strengthens its core position in the global credit system.

The reason why these two assets can become strategic reserves is not only due to their physical attributes (scarcity and utility), but also because they carry the core trust of the economic order: oil is the lifeblood of industrial operations, while gold is the last line of defense for the monetary system.

In the traditional economy, a nation's strategic reserves have largely depended on physical assets such as oil and gold, and the value of these assets is usually closely related to their scarcity, usability, and market demand. However, with the progress of technology and the deepening of globalization, the limitations of physical assets are gradually emerging, and according to the latest data from the World Gold Council, gold will see a net outflow of $4.865 billion in 2023.

We have to ponder what qualities the new generation of national strategic reserves need in the technological era. In the technological era, are national strategic reserves still limited to the form of "physical assets"?

Bitcoin: A New Type of Strategic Reserve in the Technological Era?

The demand for "trust" has undergone a profound change in the technological era. The traditional trust system relies on the guarantee of governments, banks, or other central authorities, while Bitcoin has proposed a decentralized trust mechanism - without relying on a single institution or government, its value is recognized and maintained by countless market participants worldwide. It is precisely because of this that Bitcoin has the characteristics of breaking through geographical and political boundaries, and can transcend the limitations of traditional physical assets to achieve globalized value storage and exchange.

Unlike the craze for Trump Coin ($TRUMP), which is a meme coin without any technological foundation and represents more of the peripheral attributes of the fan economy, the market sentiment and participation fervor it ignited in a short period of time reveal the new rules of market operation and make us pay more attention to the value of consensus. Whether it is the love of fans, the consensus of FOMO sentiment, or the consensus based on mathematics and algorithms, just like the original Bitcoin, as long as there are people using it globally and trusting this consensus based on algorithms and mathematics as well as the open and transparent ledger, it will have its own value.

Compared to the "national strategic reserves" of physical assets, Bitcoin carries the scarcity and value storage attributes of gold, while also possessing the global circulation potential similar to oil. More importantly, unlike oil or gold, the value of Bitcoin does not depend on the promotion of a single country or institution, but is built by the faith of countless market participants worldwide. The industry has observed that Bitcoin is evolving from a "decentralized technical experiment" to a "globalized strategic asset."

This globally-based trust foundation that is not limited by geographical and political boundaries is the foundation of the new type of national strategic reserve in the technological era, and is also an exploration of the future trust mechanism that society is seeking.

The United States' Existing Layout for Bitcoin

Looking at the United States' existing strategic reserve layout, its high-proportion strategies for oil and gold reflect its pursuit of global economic dominance. Currently, the United States' gold reserves account for 23% of the global total, and its oil reserves account for 15% of the global total. These data indicate that the United States has maintained a high degree of control over the financial and energy systems through centralized resource allocation.

At present, the U.S. government has not yet announced that it will directly hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, but the deep participation of the private sector in the Bitcoin ecosystem has become a global focus of attention. For example, U.S. listed companies such as Tesla and MicroStrategy have publicly held Bitcoin, and some U.S. states such as Pennsylvania are considering establishing Bitcoin reserves. U.S. investors are indirectly holding Bitcoin through vehicles such as trusts and ETFs. According to incomplete statistics from OKG Research, as of January 20, the public sector in the United States holds about 1% of Bitcoin, the private sector holds about 9% (decentralized exchanges and centralized exchanges are not included due to lack of IP address data), and the United States holds a total of about 10% of Bitcoin, with 90% in the private sector. The trend of private sector increasing Bitcoin holdings is still continuing. BlackRock has pointed out that the increase in fiscal deficits and debt pressures has enhanced the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an alternative reserve asset, especially among institutional investors. Compared to gold and oil, the public sector's holding ratio still has a lot of room for growth.

Regardless of the manner in which Bitcoin and other crypto-assets are held as strategic reserves, this is not only a matter of quantity, but also concerns the upgrade and reconstruction of the global financial system in the technological era.

From a "decentralized technical experiment" to a "strategic asset in the technological era," what Bitcoin represents is not only the financial application scenario of blockchain technology, but also humanity's bold exploration of a new trust system. Whether Bitcoin's future can be as deeply embedded in the economic lifeline of nations as gold and oil remains to be seen. The final answer may depend on the speed at which the global economy accepts this new digital trust, as well as the vision of major economies in their strategic layout.