Bit is challenging the patience of traders as a new week begins - can anything get BTC/USD out of the sub-$100,000 range?
The stable trading range has led Bitcoin traders to scrutinize more carefully before making any bet on the trend this week.
Since reaching its all-time high in mid-January, the BTC/USD pair has maintained stability within a three-month trading range, and has yet to confirm a solid support level at the $100,000 mark.
However, over time, concerns about a floor at the $90,000 level are growing.
"If the price drops to the bottom of the range ($91,000), I think the chances of it dropping further to around $88,000 will be higher. So I'll be cautious about blindly buying at the bottom," famous trader CrypNuevo shared in a thread on X on February 16.
"I guess a lot of traders have their Long limit orders with Stop Loss (SL) just below, so there could be a liquidation gap."
CrypNuevo used liquidation data from the Hyblock Capital trading platform to identify two factors that could impact the price in the short term.
"Since BTC is currently in the downside of the range, very close to the bottom of the range, I'm looking for buying opportunities. I think the price could soon reach $99.2k and some Long positions will be liquidated there, but they want to wait for the price to drop to $93.3k to re-enter at a lower price, where we could see more liquidations".
Trader TheKingfisher, a liquidation analysis expert, believes that a Short squeeze is most likely to occur in the shorter timeframes when Bit price drops below the $96,000 level after the market opens on the new week.
"The liquidation of Bit is concentrated at the higher prices in the consolidation range and there could be a big shift as the market continues to move out of this range," Mikybull Crypto also agreed when looking at the liquidation data from CoinGlass.
Meanwhile, famous trader CJ is targeting a Bit price ceiling in the short term of $102,000.
"Bit has formed an imbalance area and a new supply zone above the $102.5k level, setting the conditions for a move up to $105k. So $102.5k - $105k is an important HTF level that could determine the next price actions," he shared. "I think this zone will cap the price, at least initially. If it breaks through, I'll aim for a move up to $125k. However, in my opinion, this likelihood is not high and we may see a final price increase to $80 before starting over. But who knows - this level will lead to that one, and ultimately the market will decide."
The short trading week on Wall Street, due to the Presidents' Day holiday on February 17, saw jobless claims lead the macro data reports.
On February 20, these data is expected to be released after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) January meeting are published, in which officials voted to pause rate cuts.
Inflation has continued to show stubborn overshoots, leading the market to adjust expectations for further rate cuts this year.
The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a minimum 0.25% rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in March is only a 2.5% probability.
With the meeting minutes expected to emphasize the Fed's hawkish stance, the coming days will see a slew of senior officials making public appearances.
"Next week is short but busy," The Kobeissi Letter account summarized the outlook for the week ahead.
Kobeissi pointed out that risk asset markets continue to trade near record highs, despite surging inflation and rising unemployment trends.
"Jobless claims in Washington DC have increased 55% over the past 6 weeks. We're at levels higher than 2008, but it's barely registering on the charts. How bad could this get?"
Bit flows on exchanges are a hot topic this week as the long-term Bit price indicator has turned bearish.
The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator, which tracks the flow of Bit between spot and derivative exchanges, is now signaling that a "bearish phase" has just begun.
According to JA Maartunn, a contributor to the CryptoQuant analytics platform, the downward shift in the IFP trend typically accompanies the start of a bear market cycle.
"When a large amount of Bit is transferred to derivative exchanges, this indicator reflects an uptrend phase. This suggests traders are moving their capital to open Long positions in the derivatives market," he explained in a blog post on February 15.
"However, when Bit starts flowing out of derivative exchanges and into spot exchanges, this signals the beginning of a bearish phase. This typically happens when Long positions are closed and large investors (whales) reduce their risk exposure."
The accompanying chart shows that past Bit price tops have always been preceded by record highs in the IFP indicator - however, this has not materialized in the current scenario.
Nevertheless, Maartunn concluded:
"The indicator has now turned bearish, suggesting that the market's risk appetite is declining and potentially marking the start of a bearish period."
Analysts continue to pay attention to whales as a potential source of support in the future, with the expectation that they can help stabilize prices and maintain the trend in the coming period.
However, other findings from CryptoQuant paint a more optimistic picture about the general demand for Bit at the current price level.
In another post on Quicktake on February 17, contributor Darkfost said that demand "remains high" despite the fact that the Bit price has not shown an upward trend in the past month.
He pointed out that the clue to this lies in the ratio of inflows and outflows on the exchanges, especially the 30-day moving average (DMA).
"Although Bit is trading in a wide range from $90,000 to $105,000, there is clear evidence of continuous accumulation, as indicated by the 30DMA in/out flow ratio on the exchanges."
This indicator currently shows that Bit is going through the first "high demand" phase, as measured by the 30DMA, since the end of the cryptocurrency bear market in late 2022.
Darkfost also noted:
"Historically, when this ratio reaches levels that can be considered high demand zones, Bit tends to rise in the short term."
However, he also warned that some of these outflows may be due to centralized exchanges regularly transferring assets to custody wallets (such as ETFs, OTC desks).
The dominance of whales in the inflows to the exchanges is reaching its highest level in years - a phenomenon that, if reversed, would further reinforce the likelihood of the market continuing to rise in price.
The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) of long-term hodlers (LTH) is actually an important indicator in determining the price cycle peaks of Bit. And 2025 so far is no exception. When LTH start to distribute their coins, this could signal a change in the price trend of Bit.
The NUPL metric measures the difference between the unrealized profits and losses of LTH. When this indicator maintains above the critical inflection point of 0.75, it indicates that the market is in a high-profit phase, and investors may seek to take profits. The indicator maintaining above 0.75 throughout January is a sign of high confidence in the LTH group.
However, when NUPL starts to decline slightly, this could be a sign that this group of investors is beginning to reduce their positions, possibly due to asset distribution in the market. When long-term investors start to take profits, this often has a strong impact on the price dynamics of Bit.
For the analytics firm glassnode, periods where the NUPL indicator maintains above the 0.75 level reflect a "sense of euphoria" in the Bit investor community - a key factor in forming a macro price top.
"In previous cycles, the euphoric state lasted 450, 385, and 228 days respectively, while the NUPL averaged from 0.91 down to 0.89 and 0.85," the company stated on February 14. "This trend still needs to be closely monitored."
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
Join Telegram: https://t.me/tapchibitcoinvn
Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/tapchibtc_io
Follow Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tapchibitcoin
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@tapchibitcoinvn
Lilly
