Author: Su Yuchen

I. The "Predestined Cycle" of Yescoin and TON

The recent arrest of the founder of Yescoin has caused a stir on Twitter, and a month ago, Zhang Chi was still updating his entrepreneurial reflections, while millions of users had played the Telegram click-through mini-game last year.

Following the curiosity, I found that the information disclosed mentioned "missed the best opportunity to issue coins in May 2024", which inevitably made me think of the frenzy of the TON ecosystem half a year ago.

At that time, VCs and KOLs were shouting that "TON will become the WeChat of Web3", the myth of "click to get rich" was all over social media, exchanges were scrambling to list TON ecosystem projects, and retail investors were frantically registering Telegram sub-accounts to "grab airdrops"... Now, the predicament of Yescoin is like a mirror, reflecting the parabolic trajectory of the TON ecosystem from its peak to its decline...

II. The Tide: The "Trio" of VC, Exchange, and TG

1. VC Hype: Precise design from narrative to pump In 2024, Pantera Capital loudly shilled TON, positioning it as the "Web3 super app gateway", igniting market sentiment. At that time, the TVL on the TON chain surged 20-fold to $6 billion in two months, with user growth outpacing Ethereum. VCs are well-versed in the logic of "traffic is valuation": Telegram's 1 billion user pool is a "gold mine" that no public chain can match.

2. Exchanges Scramble: The "Harvest Race" in Traffic Lowlands Exchanges like Binance and OKX quickly sniffed the opportunity and rushed to list TON ecosystem projects. Small games like Notcoin and Catizen quickly gained traction with their "zero threshold + social viral" models, with Notcoin's user base exceeding 35 million and Catizen gaining 20 million followers in two months, reaching a market cap of $1 billion upon listing. The influx of Telegram users into the exchanges was reminiscent of the "Pinduoduo-style viral growth" of the Web2 era, and what the exchanges needed was this "data growth" story for their financial reports.

3. Telegram's "Stratagem": Payment and Business Closed-Loop Telegram founder Durov publicly supported TON on multiple occasions, even launching the built-in wallet TON Space to connect "communication + payment + gaming". Tether issued a stablecoin on the TON chain, and the official launched a $5 million developer incentive program, each step pointing to the ambition to transform Telegram's social empire into a crypto-economic ecosystem.

It was the collusion of these three that propelled the prosperity of the TON ecosystem.

Early participants could get projects like Notcoin and Dogs for as little as $30. This wave also allowed a group of cross-border e-commerce Telegram account dealers to make a fortune, with some earning hundreds of millions of dollars in a single night, which was a huge shock to me at the time: so this was the airdrop of the TON ecosystem?

After Binance listed Notcoin and Dogs, the grand drama finally reached its climax - Binance eventually listed TON, with the highest price reaching $8, followed by the listings of Catizen and Hmster, a few star projects.

But as a deep participant in the TON ecosystem, I also became aware of an undeniable problem: the value of the airdrops began to shrink rapidly after TON was listed on Binance, and it was at this moment that I started shorting the TON ecosystem tokens, which in retrospect was an incredibly correct decision.

III. The Tide Recedes: Value Collapse After Traffic Exhaustion

1. User Fatigue: From "National Carnival" to "Scattered Feathers"

In the later stage of the TON ecosystem, the project parties and exchanges jointly promoted the "TON Ecosystem Month", with the same old tricks of check-in, user recruitment, and gas consumption. The exchanges also gradually woke up: the so-called "1 billion user pool" had a conversion rate of less than 1%, and most people came only to fleece the sheep. When the token price plummeted from a high of $8 to less than $3, even the most loyal community members began to sell.

2. VC and Exchanges Withdraw: Narrative Disintegration and Capital Cashing Out

Early investors like Pantera quietly reduced their holdings, and the frequency of exchanges listing TON-related projects plummeted. The analysts who once shouted that "TON will surpass WeChat" have now turned to AI and other emerging narratives. Telegram had already earned enough fees through ecosystem cooperation and achieved profitability in 2024, leaving only retail investors lamenting the parabolic K-line: where is the promised Web3 WeChat?

The TON ecosystem projects expanded from the early Catizen and Hmster mini-games to an increasing number of mini-games and DeFi applications, but in reality, they were just changing the shell without any substantive innovation.

As a witness, I have seen the TON ecosystem valuation plummet from $1 billion to $100 million and then to just a few million dollars, and Binance has not listed any TON ecosystem projects since Hmster. It's like watching a building collapse after a grand banquet.

Conclusion: Awakening from the Dream, Continuing the Chase

When the TON ecosystem was just starting, I had purchased 32 TON and hoped that through these 32 TON, I could fully experience Telegram's rise to become a super app like Web3 WeChat, and see the wallet balance of the TON network constantly appreciate like gold.

But now the dream is over. It has shown us the sickle of VCs, the traffic magic of exchanges, and the collective frenzy of human nature under the temptation of getting rich. The story of TON is not over yet, perhaps as Durov said: "Telegram will always belong to the rebels."

But the next rebellion should not be a betrayal of our own rationality. Can we smell the wind earlier than the VCs, and press the button faster than the exchanges?