Starting this Monday, possibly stimulated by rumors circulating in the community that the White House intends to purchase BTC with gold, BTC briefly rose to $86,639 around 8 AM today (24th), with a slight pullback before press time, currently trading at $85,879.
While this cannot be confirmed at the moment, if the Trump administration truly wants to buy BTC with gold, it would likely require a series of consultations across political circles, and progress would not be this quick. The following will focus on the three major potential factors that the US stock market will face this week to grasp market dynamics.
Analyzing Key Investment Considerations for the Coming Week
These three variables are: Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' comments, important economic data releases, and corporate earnings reports. These factors will collectively weave the potential direction of US stocks this week and will likely influence the cryptocurrency market.
Fed Officials' Stance, Influencing Market Sensitive Nerves
First, the market will closely monitor Fed officials' views on economic, employment, inflation, interest rates, and tariff issues (three officials are expected to make consecutive comments this week). As the Fed has recently maintained unchanged interest rates, officials' statements will provide the market with more clues about future monetary policy direction, especially their views on inflation prospects and the timing of rate cuts this year.
The market currently generally expects the Fed to begin rate cuts later this year, but the specific timing remains uncertain. If officials' comments lean hawkish, it could trigger market revisions to rate cut expectations, potentially putting pressure on the stock market. The FedWatch tool indicates that the market currently expects over 70% probability of a rate cut in June.
Additionally, Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariff measures on April 2nd. Informed sources reveal that these tariffs will target more specific objectives, not universal tariffs; only countries that have not imposed tariffs on US products and have trade deficits may avoid reciprocal tariffs. This could heighten market concerns about a potential trade war rekindling. Fed officials' views on tariff issues will also be a market focus.
Economic Data Releases, Revealing the US Economic Situation
Multiple important economic data will be released this week, including the final Q4 2023 US GDP, March University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value, February Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, durable goods orders, new home sales, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value.
The most watched is the February Core PCE Price Index. As one of the key inflation indicators the Fed focuses on, changes in the Core PCE Price Index will directly impact the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The market currently generally expects the February Core PCE Price Index annual growth rate to slightly slow down but remain above the Fed's 2% target. If the data exceeds expectations, it could intensify market concerns about inflationary pressures, potentially pressuring the stock market.
Corporate Earnings Season Begins, Examining Profit Performance
Third, US companies including Lululemon and Dollar Tree will successively release earnings reports this week. Investors will closely monitor corporate profit performance and future outlook to assess corporate operational conditions in the current economic environment.
Although recent market concerns about economic recession have somewhat diminished, corporate profit prospects still carry uncertainty. According to FactSet data, analysts estimate S&P 500 corporate earnings growth will slow from last year's 10.9% to 9.4% in 2025.
